Ukraine today is a fragile tightrope for global leaders, whose leaders are traversing the tenuous tightrope of peace and war, unity and disintegration. With fighting still ongoing, speculation about who actually controls Ukraine has put tensions on high, not only between Moscow and Kyiv but between the West’s closest allies.
The Trump administration has gone public in opposition to the trend of previous U.S. policy, including direct negotiations with Russia that have left European leaders unsettled and high and dry. European leaders repeatedly call for zeal to take the lead on the promises of security for Ukraine, but are vague on what that assistance would mean.
On the contrary, the US strategy has intensified tensions, with Europe fearing that independent American diplomacy would cut off an integrated Western position short.
European leaders have cautioned that a ceasefire without the long-term aim of a comprehensive peace plan would more likely enable Russia to recover and pose again, not just for Ukraine, but for the whole of Europe.
French President Emmanuel Macron has taken the lead in warning against a sense of vulnerability in French backing for President Putin, and that Ukrainian sovereignty would need to be at the heart of any resolution. Macron has also proposed an EU-led reassurance force for Ukraine, though there remains some mileage to go on what such a force would look like.
Across the Channel, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been a bridge. He is firm that any security guarantees offered by Europe are accompanied by a hard pledge from the U.S. to warn Russia to stop being aggressive in the future. Starmer demonstrated that he would deploy British soldiers into battle alongside European partners if a lasting peace ignited, but only under the protection shield of the U.S., which he deems as vital in an effort to warn Russia not to go to war.
For Ukraine, hope is scarce. Its president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is in a tight spot. In his interactions with the Americans, he was visibly tense when he insisted on strong security guarantees and rejected any deal that would legitimize Russian control over Ukrainian territory. But Zelenskyy has always been grateful for American support while insisting on protecting his country’s red lines.
There has also been a public demonstration of solidarity by European leaders for Ukraine, lighting monuments in their colors and making repeated statements of support. Macron, Starmer, and others have observed that Europe stands with Ukraine and that no peace that will endure can exist if it is not a fair one. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reassured Zelenskyy that he is not alone, praising the bravery of the Ukrainian people and affirming Europe’s ongoing commitment.
While that is happening, Russia persists with its policy of diplomacy by staying away from Western intervention and employing ceasefire offers as a strategy to look like being cooperative but continuing to maintain the employment of military pressure. Western security assurances have been criticized by Russian authorities as destabilizing the European continent.
The human cost of the price is still vast. Thousands of civilians have been killed or wounded, and thousands more are living more desperate lives on the margins of areas of conflict. Calls for an agreed substance, enforceable ceasefire respecting the sovereignty of Ukraine are growing more insistent, but negotiations on these terms are made more difficult by the conflicting agendas and concerns of the powers.
In this intense environment, the destiny of Ukraine—and the reputation of the collective defense protection by the West—is still in the balance. The next few months will challenge not only the courage of Ukraine but also the unity of the transatlantic community that for decades has maintained stability in Europe.