The unveiling of the Su-75 “Checkmate” by Russia sent waves through the global fighter community, anticipating a major upheaval. Being marketed as a less costly competitor of the American F-35, it was like the dream alternative for countries craving stealth tech but barred from Western programs. Nevertheless, the aircraft is still very much a “maybe” rather than “the new” at present, leaving the world to wonder if it really is a groundbreaking plane.
Formally, the design is daring. One would understand that the Su-75 is a single-engine, low radar signature aircraft with the ability to travel at almost Mach 1.8, equipped with arms of up to seven tons and with a range that exceeds 3000 km without any stop for refueling. Its schematic also comprises features, such as plug-and-play avionics, AI-based self-repair and diagnostics, and the ability to communicate with the latest weapons. The real seizing of the limelight, though, was its expected price – from 30 to 40 million dollars – one and a half times cheaper than any of the Western opponents.
Unfortunately, so far, the reality is the opposite of what was promised. Since the 2021 MAKS air show, when it flamboyantly introduced itself, the Checkmate has been coming to expos in the form of a show model, without any production- or even prototype-performance. The story of the factories that “are to be built soon” has been going on for some time and has been quietly moving further and further down the schedule line, a step backwards for the glum watching authorities.
The lack of buyers is partly responsible for these delays. Moscow, having thought of the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia as its most promising directions, expected that these regions would be the first to come running to it, looking for an aircraft offering stealth but being out of reach of the West. The UAE, India, and Algeria were inclined to ask questions, but this turned out to be only a bit of interest rather than real contracts.
The energy of the marketing has been extravagant—once it even went as far as giving away branded cologne—but nothing like that has meant any sales, and as one of the defense experts put it quite sharply, it’s not hard for countries to fall in love with a prototype in a famous showroom, but let them write the check off for an unproven fighter—now that’s another story.
On top of that, there have been economic and political hurdles as well. The sanctions have put severe limitations on the production side of the high-tech component, thus making it quite difficult to get the electronics needed for the modern aircraft. In connection with this, the obstacles in the supply chain have gone some way in pushing the development into a grey area of doubt. The capacity to build up would be a big issue even if the buyers were to sign agreements with us today.
The war in Ukraine has been a factor that changed the Russian military’s allocation of funds. Instead of the immediate needs of the military being met by the next-generation drone, missile, and artillery technologies, as is the case now, the demand has been for the latter. In such a context, the Su-75, as a matter of prestige, is hard to gain attention and funding from.
Besides that, there is also the question of what the future will be like for manned fighters. The fight is becoming no more than a long-range missile duel and drone warfare. The dogfight era is almost dead. It only makes sense to go for the cheap route of unmanned drones when investing billions in pilot stealth aircraft becomes impractical. The shift-characteristic further dilutes Checkmate’s arguments.
Russia tried to find other investors to share the load with them. It is safe to say that the most likely joint venture was the one with the UAE, and the deal with India gave us hopes of technology transfer. India is committed to developing its own aircraft; moreover, due to its experience partnering on the Su-57 thus the enthusiasm for this project was cooled down. More recently, the Belarusian industrial base was introduced as a potential cooperative, but its limited capabilities and unsteady financial situation make it improbable that it will have a high level of involvement.
The very essence of the Su-75 is a striking reminder of how differently ambition on the drawing board and practical reality come out. Gorgeous designs and audacious promises of cost-effectiveness and performance were the launch of it, but heavy sanctions, lack of buyers, and changing defense priorities stalled the progress.
The fate of the Checkmate, whether it ever gets past just shining in mock-ups, is not yet determined. For now, it depicts less of a revolution in airpower and more like a warning about the extent of challenges experienced when taking a prototype to a real front-line fighter.