The war between Russia and Ukraine has entered a new, far more sophisticated phase. Those were the days of static front lines and round-the-clock artillery battles behind them as the fighting grew increasingly about Ukraine’s capacity to hit deep into Russian geography with precision and impact. Outgunned and outnumbered, Kyiv used brains, unorthodox methods, and innovative technology to hit strategic vulnerabilities, hitting energy grids, supply hubs, and other key nodes.
It was not a one-off incident. Ukraine first employed its limited firepower against front-line targets within the constraints of Western-provided capabilities. When sanctions did not slow the flow, and Russian forces advanced deeper, Ukraine began firing domestically made long-range missiles and drones. Free from outside restraints, these assets enabled Kyiv to target refineries, warehouses, and even facilities miles deep in Moscow, and the conflict entered a new era.
The damage has been huge. Experts reckon that Russia’s petroleum industry lost billions of dollars in production as scores of tanks and refineries were hit in the past year. A majority of them are no longer operational now, either because of fear of being hit again, unavailability of spares, or cost. There was one big one in Feodosia, Crimea, last week, which incapacitated eleven storage tanks, the cost at billions.
There is the economic effect, not the only one. Refining operations had to be curtailed, exports restricted, and fuel diverted across Russia’s vast territory. Repair is cumbersome and expensive, far exceeding the cost of replacing drones and missiles. Asymmetry works in Ukraine’s favor in this war of attrition to keep Russia stuck in an endless cycle of costly, time-consuming adjustments while discrediting its operations.
Bases have also been attacked in retaliation. Ammunition depots at Tikhoretsk and Toropets have been targeted by Ukrainian strikes, seriously hindering supply and directly impacting front-line operations. Operations such as Spiderweb, where drones off mobile platforms bombed multiple air bases, killed dozens of nuclear-capable fighter aircraft in hours, showing the firepower and reach of Kyiv’s capabilities.
But these incisive penetrations are limited as to what extent they can extend. They reorganize the geometry of the battlefield and compel Russia to improvise, but never win through alone. Ukraine simply does not have sufficient forces to exploit the seams optimally. The conflict is still a war of attrition in which defense depth and quantity ultimately trump cleverness.
Russia has retaliated with strikes on Ukrainian power plants, civil infrastructure, and energy equipment. People are left in the dark in the millions, and houses are without heating or water. The human cost has been brutal, with dozens of civilians killed or injured each month. Port and rail damage continues to block the export of food and the transportation of humanitarian supplies.
The psychological and strategic ramifications of the Ukrainian attacks are harder to quantify but no less important. Attacks into the heart of Russia destroy the aura of invincibility, enhance Ukrainian morale, and discredit Russian disinformation. While jamming refineries and infrastructure stretches out the Russian budget and supply chain, it provides Kyiv with levers by which to bargain with its Western partners.
But industrial diversification and geographical depth in Russia allow some latitude. Even if all the vulnerabilities were knocked out for the time being, productive capacity is so vast that it can continue with the execution of military operations. Shortages mainly affect civilians, with fighting on the front lines going mostly unimpeded.
The lessons are obvious. New warfare employs more technology interoperability, resolution, and distance. Satellite images, low-technology navigation aids, and encrypted communications produce accurate strikes but complex systems that cannot be fully destroyed. The bigness of Russia is a strength and a weakness, subject to attack but not rebuilding at a slow speed, and is expensive.
Finally, Ukraine’s deep attack campaign has forced both sides to evolve. Kyiv’s high-speed, test-and-learn strategy—with crowdsourced solutions and relentless innovation—has produced tactical victories, but the strategic advantage to date is modest. Russia retaliates in piecemeal morsels, with greater standoff. The cost in reserves adds up as the war metastasizes into infrastructure, revealing a new type of battlefield: the systems under entire countries.
With the fourth year of conflict already underway, the only question is: will these same, unorthodox strategies change the pace, or will sheer resources and muscle again dominate? The answer at present is hanging for the moment on the smog over blackened refineries, rolling blackouts, and the relentless push of two armies stuck in a dead tie neither can so easily break.