If you’ve watched the plot twist-ridden last season of your favorite anime show, wait until you catch up on the real drama unfolding on the continent’s diplomatic and military platform. The conflict in Ukraine has been the continent’s biggest crossover event, with the US, Russia, and a veritable roster of European political leaders all vying to be the one who dictates the narrative—and the stakes are higher than ever.
The new episodes opened with a whirlwind of crisis summits, secret phone calls, and not-so-thematic horseplay regarding who can write the ending to Ukraine’s war story. French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and other European heavyweights rallied in Paris, set on showing that Europe is more than a side player in the US-Russia duet. As Macron put it, Europe is poised to provide security assurances to Ukraine as soon as the peace treaty is inked, and the groundwork is already done—albeit details remain sketchy, like any good cliffhanger.
In the intervening time, President Donald Trump has been busy selling his own narrative, opting for bilateral talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia and Europe and Ukraine on their breathless sides. According to the US Department of State, top US and Russian officials met in Riyadh to prime the pump for peace negotiations, with Trump and Putin reportedly agreeing to start talks. The twist is that Ukraine was not invited, and European leaders were left scrambling to respond to what they see as a seismic shift in the transatlantic community.
This pullback has rattled the capitals of Europe. In the words of Polish foreign minister Radosław Sikorski, Trump is practicing “reconnaissance through battle”—push, see what happens, and change position. European leaders, not wanting to be spectators, have responded by forming a “coalition of the willing,” boosting defense spending, and drawing up plans for a reassurance force that could support Ukraine in priority areas even if the US decides to sit it out.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, ever the hero of this tragedy, has made it clear that Ukraine will not settle for any deals cut over its head. He’s called for solid, reliable security guarantees, warning that a weak ceasefire would be only a stepping-stone to more Russian aggression. Zelenskyy’s demands are echoed among European leaders, who insist that any peace will be lasting and must involve Ukraine. The message is simple: no decisions on Ukraine without Ukraine.
Along the chessboard, Russia is also playing its move. Kremlin press secretary Maria Zakharova has repeatedly warned that Moscow would not agree to the presence of any Western troops in Ukraine as part of a peace deal, dismissing European security assurances as threats to Europe. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has denounced Europeans for seeking to “continue war” in Ukraine, and ex-President Dmitry Medvedev has threatened British assets, calling UK officials “English idiots.” It is the kind of evil repartee that would be expected in a retro great villain, but with very real implications for the battlefield.
As the diplomatic melodrama plays out, Europe is experiencing a military-industrial makeover worthy of a mecha anime montage. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called on Ukraine to transform into a “steel porcupine”—resilient, modernized, and palatable to no aggressor. Defense industries on the continent are ramping up cooperation, and new money was pledged for air defense missiles and preparations to ramp up weapons production. Germany, historically budget hawkish, is now poised to exempt military spending from its strict debt rule, a Zeitenwende 2.0 moment that will transform the continent’s strategic posture.
The European defense future is being rewritten in real time. Macron and Starmer have outlined a European reassurance force, while debate on how to project France’s nuclear deterrent to other European nations is heating up. Nuclear powers Britain and France are shifting to play a bigger role as drivers of security, and Germany is poised to be a bigger player if its new government seizes ambitious plans. The EU is also building financial strength, with joint borrowing for defense and eased debt rules, though political spoilers like Hungary remain a challenge.
Everyone’s eyes now turn to the next episodes: can Europe negotiate a unified front, secure genuine assurances for Ukraine, and deter Russian aggression in the future? Or will the continent remain stuck between Washington and Moscow, incapable of exerting its own initiative? One thing’s for sure—the plot twists are far from finished, and the stakes are as blockbuster-y as any season finale.