In June 2025, Ukraine launched a bold drone attack against Russian bomber bases that stunned the globe. What had long been considered unthinkable—hitting a substantial portion of Russia’s long-range bomber force—was now a fait accompli. The attack was more than a tactical victory; it was a warning that established wisdom about distance, defenses, and deterrence no longer applies.
The mission, dubbed “Spider’s Web,” was unprecedented. Ukraine launched 117 tiny first-person view drones, fired from within commercial vehicles that drove over 1,000 miles through Russian territory. Four large airbases were struck, and at least 13 aircraft—at least two Tu-95s, two Tu-22M3s, and a seldom-seen A-50U radar aircraft—were damaged or destroyed, according to Ukrainian sources. What made the mission historic wasn’t just the scope but the deployment of AI-powered drones that could hunt and destroy targets with minimal human intervention—technology that had seemed like science fiction a few years ago.
The effect was instantaneous. Satellite photographs and viral videos showed smoldering hangars and broken. The Russian press attempted to minimize the losses, but even friendly commentators conceded that the attack was a credible blow. “Pearl Harbor” analogies rang around talking-head groups. Whether the ultimate total is known or unknown, Russia was compelled to shift and revise the basing of its strategic bombers, diminishing their capacity to threaten Ukraine’s cities.
This intensification did not come out of the blue. It was Ukraine’s immediate response to constant Russian missile and drone barrages against population centers. Russia has swarmed the air with tens of thousands of drones and missiles, particularly the Shahed-136 loitering bomb that runs some $35,000 per unit. Ukraine shoots down most, but incessant swarms wear down defenses and fray nerves. Analysts put the cost of a successful Russian drone at around $350,000, much less than cruise missiles and frequently less expensive than Ukraine’s countermeasures.
These are remapping the calculus of war. For decades, sophisticated militaries were assumed to prevail using precision ordnance that cost millions. Now, cheaply mass-produced drones are causing billions of dollars’ worth of aircraft and infrastructure to crash to the ground. That is the view of one US official after the June attack: about $100,000 worth of drones had disabled planes worth more than $7 billion. That breathtaking return on investment is making militaries across the globe rethink their means.
The sudden development of drone warfare has set off an industrial competition. Russia and Ukraine are both manufacturing drones at astronomical levels. Ukraine’s defense ministry released orders for over 1.6 million drones within one year, with monthly shipments of 200,000 units from simple quadcopters to strike platforms with a range of over 900 miles to attack targets more than 900 miles away.
On today’s battlefield, the air is so filled with drones that tanks and infantry have to fight a distance further back, making old-fashioned tactics like massed charges practically obsolete.
But with innovation comes counter-innovation. Electronic warfare has become the greatest defense, with both sides racing to jam signals and disorient incoming drones. Endless frequency shifting, signal boosting, and spoofing have reduced the electromagnetic spectrum to its battlefield. The next great step, though, is drones that do not use signals at all—completely autonomous machines controlled only by onboard AI. As one Ukrainian pilot would describe it, “You can’t jam a drone that doesn’t depend on you to navigate it.”
Despite this, the image is not perfect. FPV drones, as promising as they are, are still fragile devices. Technical failure, inexperienced pilots, and electronic interference result in a mere proportion of missions unfolding as planned. Most drones are employed in follow-on attacks on already damaged targets. Artillery and mortars are still more dependable for most front-line purposes, and the difficulty of coordinating, supplying, and maintaining huge drone forces presents new logistical challenges.
For armies outside the battlefield, the lessons are disheartening. Range, geography, and classic superiority no longer promise a haven. Even the United States struggles to deploy affordable and scalable counter-drone systems despite investing billions in lasers, interceptors, and air defense initiatives. Analysts caution that technology is not sufficient—military organizations, doctrines, and even legislation need to change with it.
Warfare’s future is coming sooner than most anticipated. Ukraine’s drone deployment is only one illustration of how survival and victory increasingly rely on agility, ingenuity, and readiness to embrace new technologies at lightning speed. Artificial intelligence, autonomous flight, and mass production are shifting the balance away from brute size and wealth. And as the war continues, it is reforming not only the weapons of war but the very premises that govern how wars are fought—and won.