The United States is at a pivotal juncture in the quest for air dominance, where technological aspiration, budget constraints, and evolving strategic needs all converge. The Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program of the Air Force, once touted as the future of air combat’s centerpiece, is now undergoing close examination. After decades of study and the investment of billions of dollars, the program has been put on hold to reconsider what is really possible—knowing that chasing every new idea at once isn’t economically feasible.
Cost constraints are substantial. Initial estimates put each NGAD fighter at anywhere from $300 million, but Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall suggests a more realistic target of $80–100 million per aircraft, about the cost of an F-35 today. Experts caution, however, that creating a full-fledged sixth-generation fighter in that price range could be unrealistic. Even sophisticated fourth-generation fighters such as the F-15EX or Eurofighter Typhoon have a larger price tag. Unless there are design or production scale adjustments, NGAD as initially conceived might still be financially beyond reach.
This fact has focused renewed interest on the F-35. Formerly criticized for cost, the F-35 is now gaining acceptance as a sensible solution. With over 1,000 aircraft delivered and 150 being produced annually, the scale of production has reduced the per-unit cost below that of several fourth-generation fighters. Aside from cost, the F-35 has also demonstrated itself in big exercises, with repeat displays of excellent performance in fourth-generation air combat. With its sophisticated radar, mighty engine, and fused sensor suite, it has a clear advantage in beyond-visual-range combat.
Despite that, though, the F-35 is far from the last word in air combat. The future Block 4 upgrade holds significant overhauls: a radar with almost twice the range in detection, upgraded infrared targeting, and greater internal space for long-range missiles.
Coupled with AI-capable drone wingmen, these upgrades bring the F-35 within reach of sixth-generation spec levels once envisioned. The Block 4 F-35 has been characterized by analysts as “able to fly alongside unmanned wingmen, with improved radar, longer infrared targeting, and unmatched situational awareness.”
Nevertheless, challenges exist. Though its range is impressive, it might not cover all operational requirements. Experimental systems such as stealth drop tanks would add range, but these are marginal solutions and not revolutionary ones. Ideally, NGAD would fill these gaps, but the Air Force will have to resort to innovative application of current platforms while balancing performance and cost.
This is where the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program comes in. A part of the NGAD “family of systems,” CCAs are being designed to fly in tandem with manned fighters, with sensors, electronic warfare gear, or extra weapons.
The unmanned companions are designed to enhance mission flexibility and affordability, enabling fewer manned aircraft to have a greater overall effect. Secretary Kendall has pointed out that achievement in this program illustrates the value of close collaboration with industry partners who have a common vision and investment with the Air Force.
Competition within the defense industry continues to be fierce and dynamic. Lockheed Martin remains the leader in fifth-generation fighters but positions itself for NGAD prospects as well. Boeing and Northrop Grumman continue to be active players with Northrop indicating potential re-entry as program specifications change. In the meantime, the Navy works towards its own next-generation fighter programs, overcoming funding and readiness limitations.
In the end, the fight for air superiority is not just about the planes themselves—it’s a reflection of industrial prowess, procurement policy, and capacity to counter future threats on budget. NGAD’s system-of-systems design, open architecture, and digital engineering hold out the promise of flexibility and quick upgrades, but all those advances come at a price, necessitating careful risk-and-capability balancing.
Choices today will echo for decades. Will enhanced F-35s, accompanied by unmanned wingmen and next-generation digital systems, maintain U.S. air supremacy until the real sixth-generation fighter comes along? Or will financial and technological challenges compel a root-and-branch reappraisal of future air power? One thing is certain: the battle for mastery of the skies is far from won, and every decision taken now has consequences that reach far beyond the flight deck.