If your TV plot turns are unbelievable, the real drama that has been playing out between Russia, Ukraine, and NATO might have even the most seasoned plot-twister blushing. Everything was left hanging in February of 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine in a massive attack. The move surprised the world and threw international security into chaos. Ukraine, the old Eastern giant, overnight turned into a battleground for an all-out struggle between rising and declining powers.
Why is Russia so desperate in this particular instance? Set aside the half-whispers of nostalgia for the Soviet Union or cultural ties. For Alexander Korolev, a Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Russian strategy is pragmatic: grasping geopolitical possibilities and exerting influence by taking up space.
NATO’s slow-walking push into Ukraine’s backyard only succeeded in making Moscow more determined to prevent Ukraine from joining the West. Russia is, briefly, operating as if it were not from fantasy land but from a realist understanding of power politics, with Ukraine firmly in the red zone.
And then the script was turned on its head: Russia was expecting a walkover, but Ukrainian forces defied expectation and mounted a ferocious defense that has left the world agog. The West responded with a deluge of aid, though one that was circumscribed by huge constraints.
Korolev reports, “The United States and NATO will not fight and die for Ukraine.” NATO has, however, expended its resources on weapons deliveries, training efforts, and support operations. The alliance’s Security Assistance and Training activities are now a formidable web, managing hundreds of individuals and a range of hubs to assist Ukraine in gaining access to the equipment and subject matter experts it needs.
In spite of sanctions imposed against Moscow, Russia has experienced surprisingly robust economic activity, transcending the pressure from the West. The bilateral trade arrangements with other countries have also mitigated the effect of sanctions, making the myth that Russia is isolated null and void. The story serves as a reminder that geopolitics cannot always be dramatized as a one-dimensional story.
Simultaneously, NATO is also fighting off-battlefield challenges. Global warming officially made it onto the NATO agenda, with programs that bring environmental thinking into military operations and planning.
Programs span the gamut from green energy in bases to policy aimed at minimizing the environmental impact of operations and training. The reality is harsh: killer weather, increased heat, and changing terrain are pushing the readiness of the military in ways conventional training could not.
All these advancements are ushering in a new generation of collective defense. NATO stepped up its presence on the front line in the east, accelerated cyber and missile defense, and committed serious long-term assistance to Ukraine. Defense spending is up, and ambitious plans over the next decade, all aimed at keeping Ukraine strong, protecting Europe, and preventing further aggression.
For Ukraine, the future is brittle and promising. Pro-EU and pro-NATO membership has gathered steam, spurred by war. But the boundaries of foreign aid and the fine web of alliances guarantee that each step has apocalyptic implications.
The world waits with bated breath for this bet-on-decision to be made—no side show, no retaliation, but tough repercussions that will determine the fate of the continent.