Basically, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has undergone a transformational change after the first few years. No more fighting is limited to the front trenches or gunnery duels. Almost every other day, you can witness the penetration of the Russian mainland by bombs, missiles, and, of course, drones of Ukrainian forces. Oil refineries, fuel depots, and supply routes seem to be the new favorite meal of Moscow’s military machine—these “meals” have become frequent. These attacks bring a power shift, showing how far modern war can extend beyond the battlefield and thus disrupt a foe’s capability to fight.
Initially, Ukraine could only hit targets that were close by. The long-range precision guerrilla attacks of Ukrainian forces are mostly aimed at Russian military installations near the front lines as a result of Western restrictions on the use of donated weapons by Kyiv in deep Russia. Gradually, these rules became less effective in limiting Moscow’s war chest, which was funded mostly from energy revenues. To counter this, Ukraine increased the production of drones and improvised missiles. The Ukrainian capital came up with a plan that allowed them to smash targets deep inside Russia, hundreds and even thousands of kilometers away, without having to depend on foreign suppliers.
The good news has been eye-catching. Ukrainian drones managed to target 81 Russian oil facilities in their first four months of 2025 alone. Consequently, the campaign had a considerable impact on Russia’s refining capacity, which was cut by about 10 percent temporarily by the end of spring. Several types of facilities or “vessels for production”, such as refineries, storage tanks, and pumping stations, have all been targeted. The geographical range of attacks includes places from Crimea to the heart of Russia —some locations are as far as 1300 kilometers from the front, e.g., areas close to Moscow and Engels air base.
The financial losses have been great as well. The Ukrainian attacks had an economic impact reflected in the losses of not less than 60 billion rubles (approximately $714 million) during the period from September 2024 to February 2025. A really expensive raid in Feodosia, Crimea, not only made 11 fuel tanks with a total volume of 69,000 cubic meters collapse but also set the fire that led to the destruction of other tanks and the release of gases. More than 3.3 billion rubles, or approximately $39 million, worth of damage was caused.
As a result of the attacks, oil extraction from Russian refineries was reduced. The availability of petrol and diesel has decreased while the prices have increased. The refining operation has slowed down to its lowest level in the last 10 years. In response to this, Moscow stopped publishing production statistics and, apart from that, temporarily banned the export of fuel in a bid to stabilize the local market.
However, the overall economic impact has been softened. Russia’s refining capacity is more than twice that of its domestic consumption. So even with 10–15 percent of the network being out of service, the country is still capable of satisfying its needs, sometimes with the support of Belarus. The real cost, however, is on the oil companies themselves, who lose the profits and pay expensive repairs while the state budget remains relatively stable. The decrease in the export of refined products is only partially compensated by the sales of crude oil, although the profit margins are lower.
From the military point of view, such a move places the Russian campaign in a difficult position. To defend a huge network of refineries and fuel infrastructure, you would need to deploy your air defense over a wide area, thus making the protection of some parts of the network weak. In addition to the sites that have been strengthened with Pantsir air defense systems and anti-drone nets, other sites lack coverage. As there are 38 refineries that are already in operation and the rest are on the way, it is not possible to protect them all at the same time.
Technology really played a major role in this turnaround. Low-cost navigation instruments, remote controllers connected to satellites, and the availability of commercial satellite imagery allow Ukraine to carry out devastatingly accurate long-range strikes on targets. Drones that cost a fraction of traditional weapons are now capable of bringing down billion-dollar facilities. The psychological aspect is just as important as the physical—this kind of war has been imposed on Russia’s homeland in a very unexpected manner.
Both sides are making changes. Russia has increased its attacks on Ukrainian power plants and refineries; thus, the difference between civilian and military targets has become less visible. On the other hand, Ukraine remains heavily dependent on its expanding local arms industry, which is backed by Western funds and technology as a guarantee against uncertainty in future foreign aid.
The international angle is a point beyond which one cannot look. At some periods, Washington has advised Kyiv not to strike Russian energy infrastructures, fearing disturbances of oil markets worldwide and escalation of the conflict. Still, as far as the war goes, Ukraine cannot afford to quit any of its moves and go as far as it sees fit. As long as the Russian oil trade is helping the war, Kyiv considers these raids one of the few tools it has in order to impose direct costs on the Kremlin.
Ukraine’s campaign is a vivid example of how war is transforming in the 21st century. The employment of precision drones, economic warfare, and asymmetric strategies is bringing about the reshaping of conflict-fighting methods. Actually, the extent to which these attacks go far beyond the battlefield to industrial centers of Russia, international markets, and the calculations of policymakers anywhere is what makes the case. In the future, analysts and historians will not only be asking how much destruction has been done but also how these tactics have changed deterrence, resilience, and the very nature of modern war.