The presence of ATACMS missiles has supplied Ukraine with an immensely potent weapon to target everything that is far away from the front lines. This long-distance, precision-guided armament can penetrate deeply into Russian ground, hitting not only previously unreachable enemy forces but also maintaining continuous pressure over the occupied territories of Ukraine.
The move by the United States to permit attacks on Russian soil was a marked deviation from previous policies. In the past, US leaders were careful not to go beyond this point since they were concerned about a possible escalation of the conflict to a wider level. What changed the situation, however, were some recent facts – one of them entailing North Korean soldiers working closely with Russian troops in the Kursk region, and the second being the doubt about US support pretended by some voices, and not only by analysts. They interpreted this act as only one of the ways in which the US could support Ukraine before it changes its decision.
The Ukrainian side didn’t waste time and conducted a test to check the missiles’ accuracy. It confirmed the first ATACMS strike to be a rocket attack on a missile storage facility located near Karachev in the Bryansk province, approximately 70 miles from the border. Aerial bombardment, assisted by drones, reportedly annihilated the depot’s stocks of artillery shells, anti-aircraft missiles, and other munitions. The Russian side, however, alleged that the vast majority of the missiles were shot down, yet the available footage purportedly indicated that the facility was severely damaged.
Following bombs reached the Kursk area and Russian troops to the following targets: The S-400 surface-to-air missile battalion near Lotarevka is one of the targeted positions by the military forces coming from Ukraine as a result of ATACMS missile strikes. It is the most technically capable air defense system in Russia, which is designed to neutralize the threat of US Patriot missiles, among other things.
Two of the five rockets that attacked Malta penetrated their defense and destroyed radar stations, as well as killing or injuring some personnel, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, after closing communication lines, releasing a video of their hardware on fire, and showing troops unseen. The other blow was aimed at the airfield of Khalino, yet Moscow tried to make it seem like the damage was little. Although these great shows from the Kremlin of low confidence are exceptional, they demonstrate the impact of the attacks.
Indeed, the missiles have contributed to the noticeable effects of the situation in Crimea as well. More than ten ATACMS were launched targeting the locations of S-300 and S-400 that spread throughout the peninsula, with multiple systems being destroyed or disabled, and personnel receiving injuries. Pictures taken from space confirmed the destruction of several critical sites, like the important station of Dzhankoy, among others. Such raids forced the Russian forces to move the air defense installed farther from the front line, making the logistics complicated and leaving some spots less secure.
On the other hand, Russia’s reaction has come in the form of both politics and military. Missile and drone assaults on Ukrainian cities are happening alongside the ground missile program, which targets mainly energy infrastructure, a campaign that the human rights organizations have characterized as purposely targeting civilian necessities.
Politically, Moscow has taken its nuclear-threat rhetoric further, having officials issue the warning that missile strikes from the NATO anti-missile system supported by the West on Russian ground could become targets under their new doctrine, even if the strikes are carried out by non-nuclear countries with help from nuclear powers.
From the point of view of strategy, the ATACMS deployments have had a negative effect on Moscow’s confidence. A lot of them were considered “safe” targets, such as airfields, command centers, and supply depots, but now that the usage has a reach of 300 kilometers, they are vulnerable. Moscow has been compelled to scatter its equipment, move planes further into its territory, and strengthen air defenses. On the contrary, for Ukraine, the military impact on the battlefield is readily visible, the result being that supply routes are hampered, enemy defensive positions are weakened, and morale is strengthened during fierce battles in the east.
However, analysts still warn not to overstate the effect of the ATACMS. They say that the number of ATACMS in Ukraine is not big, and Russia is constantly adjusting its tactics. The presence of missiles in and of itself will not determine the result, and political decisions made in Washington in the future may put an end to shipments.
Notwithstanding that, ATACMS has turned the strategic equation. What this deployment suggests is how a sole change in military policy can affect battlefield planning, force new risk assessments, and add to the unpredictability of a conflict that is already marked by uncertainty.