The southern Caribbean’s waters are witnessing a new standoff that is slowly escalating its tension, as the U.S and Venezuela are at loggerheads in a situation that could be regarded as a typical Cold War gunboat diplomacy incident. Thus, what was initially seen as a regional security mission with a heroic gesture has become a comprehensive dispute with far-reaching consequences.
Washington has increased its activities just offshore of Venezuela by sending not only an amphibious task force headed by the USS Iwo Jima but also three more warships and a 4,500-Marines-and-sailors unit. Additionally, along with the fleet is the USS Lake Erie and USS Newport News—the former being a guided-missile cruiser and the latter a nuclear-powered submarine—a couple of vessels indicating that this deployment could be of a serious nature, other than just a symbolic patrol.
The decision of the Biden administration for the buildup was made through allegations against the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and high-ranking officials, such as the Minister of the Interior Diosdado Cabello Oro, of ringleading the Cartel de los Soles, a drug-trafficking organization that is now regarded by Washington as a terrorist group. In the officials’ opinion in Washington, the prospect of such a threat would hardly allow the choice of forceful but necessary action.
However, the critics do not agree. They claim that the deployment of US forces so near Venezuela without congressional approval is incompatible with the War Powers Resolution of 1973. Apart from that, some question whether the administration has the legal authority to declare drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, thus indicating that this action goes beyond what the law intends.
The White House, nevertheless, remains firm that the threat of narco-terrorism is enough to warrant immediate action and sees the debate about the legality of the move as mere quibbling.
No sooner had the shots been fired in Washington than Caracas replied with volleys of its own. Vladimir Padrino, the Minister of Defense, dispatched warships and drones for surveillance along the Caribbean coast, while the ships that were already there moved further north to protect the waters of the territory.
Venezuela on land has mobilized 15,000 troops at the border with Colombia, and Maduro has also asked civilians to join militias to be ready for any incursion. Government officials emphasize that the country has already, in the first six months of this year, confiscated more than 50 tons of drugs and destroyed hidden shipyards aimed at building smuggling submarines. Venezuela insists that it is not involved in the production of coke and at the very same time points at Colombia as the main supplier of the drug trade.
This flare-up is being caused by technology more than anything else. With high-tech sensors and safe communication, drones can follow suspicious ships for a few days and then report back to the naval commanders at sea. The United States’ heavy use of drones is a way to extend its reach, lower the risk for the crew, and show a general trend to using mixed fleets where manned and unmanned vehicles are operated together.
Different from all the other players, the diplomats also want a voice in the matter. Sending a complaint to the United Nations, Venezuela requested that the military build-up by the U.S. to stop, and also sought guarantees that there will be no introduction of nuclear weapons in the Caribbean. The opposition in Venezuela is still unsure if it wants to cooperate or not. On the one hand, some factions do support Washington’s actions, while on the other hand, they advise that help from outside would be an enemy of sovereignty. Moreover, countries like Mexico and Paraguay have recently talked about national independence and the importance of international law, thus showing that they are against foreign interference in the region.
This conflict is a hint of a scenario where the use of military power, the deployment of advanced technologies, and uncertainty about the legality of fighting against transnational crime are hard to reconcile the way they do in this case. Although it may look like the times of large-scale naval battles are back, all the weapons and strategies we see here are very modern ones.
While Washington and Caracas prepare for what might be a conflict that goes on for a long time, the real challenge could not be just the amount of firepower, but whose strategy, lawfulness, and flexibility will finally be the victors.