Russian forces continue moving into Ukraine, with leaders of the Kremlin formally justifying fresh claims to territory. President Vladimir Putin recently met with officials from Kursk Oblast, marking Russia’s push toward Sumy City and potential annexation of Sumy Oblast. Pavel Zolotarev, head of Glushkovsky Raion, publicly promoted a buffer zone to extend as far as Sumy City in an effort to ensure Russian territory was out of reach for Ukrainian drones and artillery. Kursk Oblast Acting Governor Alexander Khinshtein promoted historical and personal ties to the land in addition to supporting Russia’s claims in public statements.
Despite these ambitions, the on-the-ground reality is less palatable. Troops pushing towards Sumy—mostly units of the 18th and 72nd Motorized Rifle Divisions, supported by airborne and reserve forces—are not going to take a city of this size. Moscow has failed to take major cities since the first couple of months of the war, the last being Lysychansk, which was taken after weeks of bombardment. Ukrainian officials are skeptical of a large Russian push in Sumy, given their restricted force.
On the battlefields, advances have been minimal, especially in eastern Ukraine. The Donbas region is still a primary focus, with Russian forces advancing incrementally along Luhansk and Donetsk as part of an effort to surround cities like Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces pushed rapidly in the summer offensive around Dobropillya but have been kept on hold by Ukrainian defenders, with superior local knowledge and advanced Western-supplied equipment. Russian drone strikes have disrupted the evacuation of Ukrainians, says the Institute for the Study of War, and suggest the possibility of encirclements of defenders.
To the north, Russian forces have attempted to push towards Kupyansk in Kharkiv province, seeking to secure Luhansk and northern Donetsk. Villages have changed hands many times, but, short of major reinforcements, progress appears limited further. Ukrainian counterattacks—against Russian airbases and infrastructure—have inflicted real damage, though reports of $7 billion Russian loss are unsubstantiated.
Ukraine has rapidly learned on the battlefield. The creation of the country’s first specialist motorcycle unitcase in point. The 425th “Skala” Separate Assault Regiment now sends an assault motorcycle company forward to blast through Russian lines, a reaction to Russia making more use of light vehicles due to armor unit shortages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks.
Diplomatically, a stalemate remains. The United States has proposed a 30-day ceasefire, which Ukraine has accepted, but to which Russia has not responded. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed that Moscow now has a choice, citing Ukraine’s willingness to halt combat and negotiate. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov scoffed at the ceasefire-first offer, insisting that Moscow’s prerequisites—recognition of occupied territory, buffer zones, and reforms within the Ukrainian government—must first be fulfilled.
A Kremlin-linked think tank offered a hard-line strategy, deriding U.S. proposals for a 100-day peace plan as fanciful before 2026. Their proposals include formal Russian control over occupied lands, further land partitions, dissolution of the Ukrainian government, and denial of peacekeepers or a large number of Ukrainian security personnel.
Western leaders are not in a rush. EU foreign policy head Kaja Kallas warned against pushing Ukraine to concede land, the argument being that Russia hasn’t made any concessions and keeps ratcheting up its aggression. Security guarantees to Ukraine are front and center, with NATO and European governments considering robust measures to deter additional aggression. President Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine seeks assurances in the shape of NATO’s Article 5—definite pledges, not just talks.
Information warfare remains at the heart of the conflict. Russian cyber attacks against Western technology and logistics firms are aimed at disrupting aid delivery and intelligence theft. The Kremlin also spreads narratives labeling Ukrainian soldiers as neo-Nazis in an effort to legitimize continued airstrikes and strip Kyiv of legitimacy. These actions appear aimed at positioning Russian citizens to reject any potential peace deal while framing the conflict as an internal Russian matter.
Strategically, Russia’s goals go beyond immediate battlefield wins. Its push into buffer zones, occupation, and regime change in Kyiv is part of a broader desire to reshape European security trends and reassert dominance over ex-Soviet states. Moscow’s insistence on not separating ceasefire talks from final accords reflects a desire to wear down by applying continuous pressure, leveraging incremental victory.
With all of these forces in play, a negotiated settlement is a long way off. The war in Ukraine will likely continue as an attritional grind of combat, fixed diplomatic stalemate, and adaptive military maneuvers on both sides. Ground-based operating constraints, combined with Russia’s maximalist aspirations and the complexities of Western intervention, ensure the conflict will persist with no near-future settlement in sight.
