Israel-Lebanon tensions are stretched to their breaking point, and what’s hanging in the balance is not the future of two nations—this is about the stability of the region as a wholeGaza violence has threatened to spin out of control since Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, with Israel and Hezbollah trading fire and words fierce enough to alarm even seasoned diplomats.
The origins of this crisis date back many decades, but the latest eruption started on that day in October. As Israel reacted forcefully in Gaza, Hezbollah—Lebanon’s strong Iranian-backed militia—started firing over the border, claiming it was coming to the aid of the Palestinians. Israel, perceiving a severe threat to its north, has answered by calling up troops, withdrawing tens of thousands from cities to the north, and launching hundreds of attacks on Hezbollah positions. Israel has struck over 1,200 targets in Lebanon since October, the Center for Strategic and International Studies reported, while more than 200 attacks have been launched into Israel by Hezbollah and its allies.
Making an effort to stand firm—literally and diplomatically—is United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006 to bring an end to the previous war between Israel and Hezbollah. The resolution was meant to establish a buffer zone free of fighters, with peacekeepers and the Lebanese army controlling it. In practice, it hasn’t succeeded as planned. The Blue Line, which marks the border, is now monitored by over 10,000 UN peacekeepers, but both sides regularly violate it. Since October, thousands of rockets and drones have crossed that line, making it feel more symbolic than effective.
Hezbollah isn’t hiding its presence along the border. It’s Radwan forces, trained specifically for cross-border operations, have been a major concern for Israel. Recollections of attack tunnels uncovered in the ground in 2018 and fears of abductions remain fresh. That’s why Israel is adamant the status quo needs to be altered before evacuee families can be safely returned. The strategy? Relocate Hezbollah fighters a minimum of seven kilometers north, nearer the Litani River, and allow Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers to police the buffer zone. Sounds easy, but nothing here ever is.
America is working hard to avert the next full-scale war. U.S. negotiator Amos Hochstein has been running back and forth between major cities, negotiating a pact that would bring Hezbollah back, end Israeli air patrols, and re-launch talks on disputed borders. Sweetening the pot, there’s even talk of giving the disputed town of Ghadjar to Lebanon. But both sides are digging in, says the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and time is running out, particularly with school about to start and pressure building to return Israelis home.
Complicating matters are the region’s deepened alliances and rivalries. Iran, which supports Hezbollah, doesn’t desire a full-scale war with the United States or Israel, but also desires to help Hamas and continue to be the leader of the so-called “axis of resistance.” The Houthis in Yemen, another Iranian ally, have entered the fray, attacking ships in the Red Sea and even firing missiles at Israel. In reply, the U.S. has attacked Houthi positions and assembled an international task force to protect shipping lanes. These measures are intended to issue a warning, not set off a larger war, but the difference between message and escalation is perilously thin.
Meanwhile, the cost in lives keeps rising. Over a million individuals have been displaced in Lebanon as a result of Israeli strikes and incursions. On the Israeli side, some 60,000 have been displaced from their homes. The UN has continually urged both sides to respect civilians and uphold international law, reminding that further violence will only exacerbate the distress. Both sides have been accused of breaking the terms of the 2006 ceasefire, and the UN indicates the only lasting answer is to get back to making those commitments.
Currently, it all depends on deterrence—something Nobel Prize-winning strategist Thomas Schelling once characterized as the force of “latent violence.” The U.S. and Israel are signaling that they’re prepared to act if threatened. Iran and its proxies are pushing limits without quite crossing certain red lines. Yet history teaches us that all it takes is one error—one horrific miscalculation—to convert a tense standoff into full-scale war.