Those days of traditional warfare are over for Europe. What is unfolding today is not merely the war against Ukraine, but a shadow war that blazes across the continent, upsetting European security perceptions. Russia took these operations secretly up a notch, doubling sabotage, electronic warfare, and assaults on key infrastructure in the past three months alone. From submarine cable to railroad, nothing is spared.
A War Without Frontlines
The military strategists have noted that Russia’s security intelligence apparatus, the GRU, now gazes forward on such a gigantic scale. Propaganda cyberspace is no longer within its sights. Arson, bombing, and sabotage at the bottom of the oceans are all part of this war of stealth. Moscow has even severed transatlantic security-dependent communications cables by employing commercial ships with questionable ownership. They obfuscate peace and war, and governments in Europe are struggling to react.
Hybrid Sea and Air Plans
Russia uses both the open and the hidden. Bombs and flames are most readily apparent, but electronic jamming is equally deadly. GPS jamming is so prevalent in the Baltic and the Nordic states these days that flight plans must re-route after they have lost their navigation beam, and even senior commanders have been caught out—European leaders have had flights canceled through alleged Russian interference.
The sheer magnitude of such strikes is a testament to Moscow’s belief in electronic warfare. Signals are traced to Kaliningrad and border regions, most characteristically in the guise of anti-drone capacity. What does occur, however, lies far beyond the battlefield, compromising civilian airspace, sea commerce, and emergency systems.
Infrastructure in the Crosshairs
Infrastructure has been the number one target. Power transmission cables, transport wires, and submarine energy pipelines have all been targeted for disruption or acts of sabotage. The Baltic Sea has been of particular interest, with GPS spoofing posing a threat to commercial shipping and contributing to insurance premiums.
Energy infrastructure is also under attack. Drone and missile strikes in Ukraine disabled substations and isolated nuclear power facilities from the grid, leaving cities in darkness. These have been decried by the West, but are susceptible to risking the lives of millions of civilians.
How the West and Ukraine Are Responding
Western reaction to date has been piecemeal. The EU and NATO have heightened intelligence sharing and initiated operations to improve the security of underwater infrastructure. Nations like Poland are deploying maritime and aerial assets to secure their waterways, and others are defending power and transport infrastructure against attack.
But these steps, so far, have not disaffected Moscow. Sanctions, the expulsion of officials, and the closure of consulates cost Russia, but a price that has not deterred Moscow from raising its stakes. The Kremlin feels that it can raise the stakes short of a conventional war or a collective defense article of NATO.
Security Guarantees and NATO’s Dilemma
The conflict has reopened debate on the European security architecture. The Ukrainian government believes there have been endless meetings for nothing, with no concrete commitments. Coordination has increased on the delivery of aid and military equipment via NATO, but membership with the alliance for Ukraine is controversial. Coalitions are split with fear of escalation, while others believe that doing nothing is pure weakness.
The Baltic Sea: A Testing Ground
Few areas better define the stakes than the Baltic Sea. A great deal of international trade passes through these waters, from critical pipelines to communications cables. Russian adventurism in the area has prompted governments and militaries to rethink security and economic exposure. Messing with the corridor could snowball throughout Europe, hitting supply lines and energy stability.
A Call for Real Action
Increasingly, European politicians are saying it bluntly: readiness is the road to peace. ReArm Europe is the EU plan to spend more on defense and readiness, and already, some countries are budgeting a record proportion of GDP on defense. Poland, for example, is going all out to secure its military status, and others are being urged to do the same.
The language is frank—Europe cannot do it alone with summits only. The conflict in the shadows has already commenced, and decisions today will indicate whether the continent will continue to bask in its security or be mired in a renewed period of insecurity.