A new chill has fallen over Europe’s eastern frontier as Russian fighter aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles have repeatedly crossed the airspace of NATO partner nations, pushing the alliance into a new age of heightened alertness and strategic questioning. They are not isolated blips on the screen but a growing pattern of Russian aggressive gestures aimed at probing the mettle and readiness of NATO collective defense.
The most dramatic of these recent events included nineteen Russian drones that flew into Polish airspace overnight, the first time Russian drones have been shot down over the territory of the NATO alliance. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced up to four drones were shot down, with sixteen bits of wreckage strewn about the countryside in Poland, leveling homes and vehicles but, amazingly, leaving no one injured. Polish soldiers, supported by NATO partners like Dutch F-35s, Italian AWACS, and German Patriots, quickly scrambled to get the drones, demonstrating the rapid reaction of the alliance.
Describing how the air defenses worked, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte wrote, “Our air defenses were switched on and successfully guaranteed the protection of NATO territory, as they are intended to do,” and commended the pilots and everyone involved in the swift and professional reaction. The incident prompted Poland to invoke Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, necessitating immediate consultations among the member nations as well as a strong show of solidarity across the alliance.
Russia, on the other hand, maintained no intentional intent, with the military admitting there were no plans to attack infrastructure in Poland and promising to talk about the incident. But Polish and NATO officials are not so sure. Poland’s foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, said that the assessment by Polish and NATO air forces was that the drones did not stray off course accidentally but were targeted on purpose, and he dismissed Russian denials as to be expected disinformation. The action has been universally condemned by Western leaders, with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer labeling it an “egregious and unprecedented breach” and US President Donald Trump already expressing apparent irritation at Moscow’s actions.
The Polish drone incursion was not in a vacuum. Just days back, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets crossed into Estonian airspace, lingering for a dozen minutes above the Gulf of Finland before Italian F-35s escorted them out as part of NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission. Estonia, which shares a border with Russia, has experienced five incursions on its territory this year alone. The Estonian government responded by invoking Article 4 and calling for urgent NATO consultations, with Prime Minister Kristen Michal emphasizing the need for a collective and strong response to any aggression. The government further stated that the Russian aircraft had no flight plans, their transponders were off, and did not respond to Estonian air traffic control—classic signs of a deliberate probe and not a navigation error.
Romania has not been exempt, either. Russian drones have constantly violated its airspace, most recently passing six miles within its borders and flying in NATO airspace for almost one hour. Romanian Defense Minister Ionut Mosteanu denounced Russia’s irresponsible actions and committed that Romania and its NATO partners are keenly aware of protecting every inch of allied airspace. Though Romania has not yet shot down any Russian drones, the country has now taken new legislative measures allowing non-kinetic and kinetic countermeasures, depending on the level of threat.
These ongoing incursions have forced NATO to face tough questions around its rules of engagement and escalation fears. While it is less dangerous to destroy unmanned drones, the danger of dealing with Russian manned fighters runs the risk of uncontrolled escalation. The policy of the coalition has been so far moderate, with NATO planes typically guiding intruding planes out of allied airspace rather than shooting. But others in the alliance, such as Czech President Petr Pavel and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, have said it may be necessary to shoot down Russian planes if provocation persists.
The precedent set by the Turkish downing of a Russian plane in 2015 casts its shadow over these discussions. That incident, which ended in diplomatic fallout but not all-out war, is at once a warning and a future model. The decision-making process within NATO is complex, with member states retaining control of their respective military forces and the alliance’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) being bound by rules of engagement decreed by the North Atlantic Council. What that means is any action to use force against Russian aircraft would have to be carefully coordinated and, in most cases, politically approved by national capitals.
In response to the increasing threat, NATO has launched Operation “Eastern Sentry” to bolster its military presence along the eastern border, with France, Denmark, Germany, and the UK committing extra troops. The coalition has also increased its air and ground defenses, upgraded intelligence-sharing, and reinforced its pledge to defend all allied territory. The stakes are high, in that these air provocations are not simply regarded as discrete events but elements of a broader Russian strategy to test NATO’s unity and determination, scrutinize its weaknesses, and possibly deter prospective Western support for Ukraine.
As Eastern European skies grow busier and more unpredictable, NATO is walking a tightrope between escalation and deterrence, determined to protect its members without providing the spark that can ignite a larger war. The alliance’s response in the weeks and months to come will be closely observed—not just in Moscow, but in capitals around the world.