The battle for Avdiivka is a grim reflection of what this war has devolved into: an endless test of wills, supply chains, and pure grit, as well as tanks and guns. After months of positional combat, Russian troops focused on the city, trying to encircle it and tip the scales in eastern Ukraine. Their strategy was based on brute numbers—tides of inadequately trained, lightly armed soldiers advanced in what commentators referred to as “human wave” attacks. U.S. officials observed that Russia appeared not to be afraid to throw troops into the fray in incredible quantities.
The cost in human lives was staggering. Ukrainian leaders estimated close to 47,000 Russian troops were killed or injured, including as many as 17,000 deaths. Nevertheless, the city eventually fell despite those casualties. The cost of the win, however, was so great that many wondered if it was worth it. Britain’s defense ministry counted over 400 destroyed Russian tanks—more than Avdiivka’s prewar population. Observers also noted that Moscow was forced to redeploy units from other fronts to maintain the offensive, showing the Kremlin’s resolve to retain terrain regardless of the price.
Ukraine’s own defense was also stretched. Avdiivka was exposed to shortages of ammunition, lagging Western aid, and surprisingly poor fortifications. Satellite images showed shallow, improvised trenches to the west of the city, a far cry from the elaborate, multi-level defenses that Russia had constructed in the south, featuring tank traps, interlocking trenches, and obstacles. American officials in private have written of surprise that Ukraine had not invested enough in defensive positions at the start of the war—a shortcoming brutally revealed as soon as Russian forces moved.
The disparity in defenses was evident. Along villages such as Verbove, Russian lines were all but impenetrable in the face of Ukrainian counterattacks. Along the Avdiivka front, Ukrainian front lines were vulnerable and inadequately prepared. Kyiv acknowledged resources were thin and that more effort was invested in offensive movements than in digging in. Deep defenses were deemed costly and not as pressing—until the battle made evident the cost of that decision.
The losses in equipment paint a grim picture. Ukrainian intelligence indicated that since the invasion began, Russia had lost more than 7,200 tanks and some 14,000 armored personnel carriers. In Avdiivka alone, Ukraine lost about 50 combat vehicles, with Russia losing almost 700. Such proportions could not last forever. Moscow resorted to lightly armored vehicles as troop transport, an improvised measure indicative of the strain on its inventory.
Western aid has been crucial to keeping Ukraine’s front lines going. U.S. and European deliveries of ammunition and air defense systems have aided the fight, but political holdups in new shipments have exacted their cost. Supplies broke down at decisive times, and U.S. officials indicated that disruptions could have greater implications. All in Kyiv concur that Avdiivka’s fall was less a matter of lost morale than the product of critical supplies being delayed.
Manpower strains are also apparent. Russia has depended on minorities, prisoners, and draftees from poorer regions to man its ranks. Ukrainian soldiers are generally older, better educated, and strongly motivated—but the frontline average age is now in excess of 40, and hundreds of days of uninterrupted combat have toll.
Russian troops also have cracks. Soldiers frustrated with suicidal missions, poor leadership, and bad equipment are seen in leaked video footage. The Kremlin’s willingness to take heavy losses for small gains has damaged morale, but most are kept in line by threats of punishment.
Strategically, the capture of Avdiivka opens the doors to possible paths for Russian advances, but no one anticipates Moscow being able to advance much further. Its troops are tired, and it has limited reserves. Ukraine is constructing fresh lines of defense beyond the city, but short of a dramatic increase in Western aid, more positions will be at risk. European ammunition production is rising, but incrementally, and U.S. shipments are held back by political constraints.
Ultimately, the war has turned from maneuver to endurance. Russia has suffered hideous losses but still has the reserves and infrastructure to fight for years. Ukraine relies on a constant supply of Western supplies and the will of its soldiers to keep the line held.
The Battle of Avdiivka encapsulates the terrible reality of this war: vast sacrifices, humble gains, and decisions as much based in politics as on fighting. It was a Russian win by title, but the human and material price might well be greater than the territory it took.