The U.S. Air Force is undergoing a transformation that will determine the way America will dominate the skies for generations to come. The old model—replacing one current fighter with a new one—is being discarded in favor of something far more complicated: a marriage of cutting-edge technology, strategic thinking, and hard choices about what air superiority will look like in the years ahead.
At the forefront of the effort is the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, a bold initiative to develop a sixth-generation fighter backed by a system of next-generation systems. Following years of competition, in March 2025, the Air Force picked Boeing to develop and manufacture the NGAD fighter—a move that is a sea change for the Air Force and defense industry. The new platform was to redefine air dominance with record range, survivability, flexibility, and killing power. But the journey wasn’t easy.
In 2024, concerns about the estimated price tag—$250 to $300 million per aircraft—made the Air Force recede and take a second look. Commanders did not want to commit to ensuring that NGAD would mesh with other weapons and be of use against new threats for years to come. That cost equation pushed the final decision past the presidential election, showing just how huge the investment will be.
Meanwhile, as NGAD proceeds, the F-22 Raptor, the Air Force’s advanced air superiority fighter aircraft, remains in a holding pattern. Previously slated to be directly replaced by NGAD, the Raptor no longer has a planned successor.
The Air Force is instead making investments to update it to be operational in the near term. Officials do admit that the fleet is small, costly to maintain currently, and can’t close future capability gaps by itself. The dilemma now is how to balance keeping the F-22 alive longer with defining what’s in store next. The F-16 Viper, in the meantime, is getting an encore.
There is no replacement shortly, and modernization activity keeps it airborne well into the 2040s. Efforts such as the Service Life Extension Program (SLEP) and the Post Block Integration Team (PoBIT) program are giving decades of life extension and modcons upgrades to its avionics, sensors, and electronic warfare systems. These modifications provide the Air Force with space for maneuvering in selecting the future’s potential multirole fighter.
The F-15EX Eagle II is part of the solution as well. Priced to replace aging F-15C versions in Air National Guard squadrons, the Eagle II pairs an established airframe with newer sensors, software, and missiles. The strategy combines veteran status and freshness, remaining prepared while newer systems mature. Perhaps the most significant change is the emphasis on human-machine interaction.
NGAD is not a single jet, but a “family of systems” that includes unmanned Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). Those drones will fly alongside manned fighters, performing from reconnaissance to electronic warfare, to even strikes.
Two prototypes are already in testing, with flight tests in the works. The Air Force views these systems as a force multiplier that enables manned aircraft to participate more effectively and safely in hostile environments.
Budget constraints and changing threats demand that the Air Force not fail. Previous programs failed when the world changed faster than technology could be mobilized. Getting around that, the service is taking a more flexible, spiral development approach—bringing new capabilities online in smaller, quicker cycles rather than betting everything on one replacement aircraft. This is not a hardware upgrade—it’s a redesign of how America gains and sustains air dominance.
Future fighters will not only be faster or stealthier; they will be part of a dynamic system of manned and unmanned platforms, evolving as rapidly as the threats they face. The decade ahead holds the greatest American progress in airpower since the advent of the jet age, and decisions today will determine how the Air Force will fight for a generation.
