The military of Iran is in the midst of one of its most dramatic shifts in decades. To start the fiscal year of March 2025, Tehran has approved a defense budget boost of over 200 percent—a staggering increase, particularly for a country struggling with sanctions and economic pressure. This acceleration is not merely financial; it’s a declaration of intent. Most funding is going into drones and missiles, highlighting Iran’s intention to gain both deterrence and power projection capability in the entire region.
A Strategic Shift in Priorities
The logic for this growth is multifaceted. Iranian leaders are perceiving the regional security landscape as increasingly unstable, with adversaries proving the utility of sophisticated strike platforms and swarms of drones in recent campaigns. As a reaction, Tehran is focusing its effort on extended-range precision, heavily investing in new-generation ballistic and cruise missiles. The objective is straightforward: to increase range, enhance accuracy, and make it difficult for adversaries to initiate preemptive campaigns.
Drones at the Forefront of Modernization
Drones are now the crown jewel of Iran’s defense. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) recently displayed the JAS 313, jet-powered unmanned aircraft derived from the previous, widely-criticized Qaher-313 project. This time, the platform has been resurrected as a drone system, which was unveiled aboard Iran’s first-ever dedicated drone carrier, the Shahid Bahman Bagheri. Various models are under development—some for reconnaissance, others for attack missions.
The larger one reportedly has a jet engine mounted on it for high-speed operations, while the smaller ones bear a resemblance to tactical unmanned aircraft that are ideal for battlefield applications. The evolution from a questionable prototype to an operational drone family is testimony to Iran’s potential to innovate under adversity.
Iranian authorities also report successful tests of a pilotless version of the Qaher fighter plane. In addition to that, the defense industry is aggressively pursuing indigenous trainers and combat helicopters for the Navy. These initiatives demonstrate a larger push to create an autonomous military industry, less dependent on foreign suppliers.
Appealing to Moscow for Advanced Systems
But that is not all of the story. Losses in air defense capabilities following recent attacks have brought Tehran closer to Moscow for assistance. Requests allegedly cover updating existing S-300 systems, potential access to S-400 batteries, and short-range defenses such as the Tor-M2 and Pantsir-S1. Fixed-wing and rotary aircraft are also included on the wish list: the Su-35 fighter aircraft, the Mi-28 and Ka-52 attack helicopters, and the T-90 main battle tank. Both would heavily modernize Iran’s old arsenal while offering blueprints for possible reverse engineering. Russian capabilities in electronic warfare, radar, and aerospace technology are also assisting the development in Tehran of a more robust domestic knowledge base.
Balancing Deterrence and Control
Domestically, the budgetary allocations demonstrate dual priorities. Internally, while there is increased funding for the IRGC and Basij paramilitary units for regime protection and domestic security, the regular army has been allocated more resources to support territorial defense and air defense. The choices show how Tehran reconciles regional power projection with domestic stability, particularly as it grapples with ongoing economic woes.
Doctrine of Asymmetric Power
Iran’s approach continues to be based on asymmetric warfare. Instead of matching the other side’s quantity of tanks or fighter jets, Tehran prefers affordable instruments with disproportionate reach—drones, missiles, cyber forces, and surrogate fighters. These help it to attack indirectly, project power in adjacent countries, and keep the deterrence afloat without constructing a huge conventional army. “Forward defense” remains the idea to ensure conflicts are defined outside but not brought onto Iranian territory.
External Pressures and Economic Realities
The threat of future U.S. pressure hangs over the calculations in Tehran. Almost half of forecasted oil revenues are planned for defense expenditure, showing how closely defense planning is linked to oil exports. If sanctions grow tighter, Iran will likely boost hidden trade, boost domestic capacity for manufacturing, and shift more toward military-industrial autarky.
A Future Defined by Necessity and Ambition
At its heart, Iran’s defense revolution is motivated by necessity and ambition. The regime’s survival relies on making enemies believe that confrontation would prove too expensive, as well as managing domestic dissent. Moderates within the political system sometimes make the case for redirecting money into economic revival, but the security apparatus remains committed to putting defense first.
For Tehran, the lessons of recent wars are clear: drones, missiles, and layered defenses are defining the future of war. So long as there is the threat of sanctions and attack, Iran’s investment in these technologies—and its search for technological advantage—will only grow.