Over the last decade and a half, Iran’s modernization of its air force has been slow, hindered by decades of sanctions and limited access to cutting-edge defense technology. Its combat aircraft have all too frequently flown alongside aging Russian and American fighters, many of which can trace their pedigree to Cold War designs.
The recent slowdown in selling Russian Su-35 fighter jets to Iran only goes to illustrate the country’s relentless quest to strengthen its military and rebalance power in the region. After the lifting of UN sanctions several years ago in 2020, Iran could further pursue conventional weapons procurement, and the Su-35s were one of its pursuits to modernize its air force.
There has been mounting military cooperation between Tehran and Moscow in recent years. Isolated from the West, Russia has looked to Iran as a buyer and has sold hundreds of drones for export. Moscow has retaliated with advanced systems, including Su-35 fighters, Mi-28 attack helicopters, and Yak-130 trainers. The moves have sparked U.S. and regional alarm, with the escalating proximity being considered a destabilizing element across the Middle East.
The Su-35, which started service in 2014, is a state-of-the-art air-superiority fighter. It possesses extremely advanced avionics, thrust-vectoring engines, and a very adaptable loadout of weapons. To Iran, whose air force consists primarily of F-4 Phantoms, F-5 Tigers, and MiG-29s, the Su-35 would be an upgrade. Iranian government authorities stated that Su-35 possesses deterrent capability, further explaining that the aim is to make Iran capable of safeguarding its interests and promoting its position in the region. Induction of the Su-35 into Iranian forces is not a straightforward process.
Pilots and maintenance staff will need to undergo prolonged training in modern radar and electronic warfare technology as well as weapons technology. Infrastructure and logistics also put a burden on Tehran, whose current airfields are poorly configured to accept such advanced aircraft as the Su-35. Phasing the Su-35 into its current fleet will require communications networks, data links, and command networks to be upgraded, complicating planning. Response in the Middle East was swift.
Israel, whose air force is the region’s most technologically advanced, sees the Su-35 deal as a cheeky provocation. Officials have reportedly called on Moscow to rethink, outraged at increasing Iranian influence in Syria and Lebanon. The Gulf states, already wary of Iranian drones and missiles, are reassessing military plans, with some looking to purchase advanced fighter jets such as the F-35 from Western countries.
To the West, the sale is a validation of the stupidity of sanctions and embargoes. Symbolically finishing UN sanctions, it was now confirmed that Iran was free to buy conventional weapons, but buying sophisticated fighters continues to go ahead, and continues to stir security tension within the region. There remains controversy as to whether further measures must be taken to limit the proliferation of sophisticated military technology.
The short-term regional balance impact of the Su-35s is low-profile, not high-tragedy. Iran receives a qualitative air power boost but not a flashy numeric one. With fewer than six aircraft in the offing, Israel’s air force—augmented by some fifty F-35s and a few hundred other advanced third- and fourth-generation fighter jets—is still several steps ahead technically. Su-35s will enhance the defense and deterrence capabilities of Iran, but will not pose an immediate direct threat to Israel or to American forces.
Politicizing, the agreement is a pragmatic transactional alliance between Tehran and Moscow. Russia is seeking to balance Western power and locate a powerful ally, and Iran is seeking to industrialize but avoid entering into greater Russian geopolitics. Both countries appear content with loose affiliation, with each free to roam.
In the future, Iranian-Russian defense cooperation can progress to mutual production, greater cooperation on missiles and drones, and mutual integration of cutting-edge technologies. Problems in the future include delivery timetables, technical maintenance, and the risk of political tensions.
To the Middle East, Russian sales of Su-35s to Iran amount to more than a simple arms sale. They are a message of changing alignments, re-balancing deterrence requirements, and an age of increased Middle Eastern security insecurity.