The assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli bombing raid has caused shock waves across the Middle East, representing a watershed moment in the long and violent drama between Israel, Iran, and their proxy networks. For more than three decades, Nasrallah was Hezbollah’s face and mind, guiding its ascent from a local Lebanese militia into the crown jewel of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” His passing, on the back of an unrelenting Israeli push against Hezbollah’s leadership and communications infrastructure, has left the party stunned and the region holding its breath for what’s to come.
Hezbollah is now weakened, beheaded, and disorganized. As William F. Wechsler puts it, “The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah leaves Hezbollah on its heels, but as Israel’s experience with the Iran-supported organization proves, decapitation missions are frequently necessary to secure the battle but always well short of adequate to secure the peace.” The details of the attack are still emerging, but it looks like Israel took advantage of Hezbollah’s recent failures of operational security, after a string of crippling attacks against the group’s communications and senior leadership. The death of Nasrallah, along with most of Hezbollah’s leadership upper echelon, is a devastating blow to the morale of the group and to the group’s capacity to organize complex operations. And yet, as history demonstrates, militant groups manage somehow to reinvent themselves, at times in ways that make them even more mercurial or extreme.
To Iran, the assassination of Nasrallah poses a deep strategic challenge. As Danny Citrinowicz points out, “The assassination of Nasrallah places Iran in an extremely difficult position between a quick retaliation against Israel that could lead to a regional war, and not reacting at all, which will severely damage its Axis of Resistance armed proxy network.” Hezbollah has always been Tehran’s most credible threat against Israeli aggression against its nuclear program, an “aircraft carrier” of fighters and missiles on the doorstep of Israel.
Now, its leadership decimated and its capabilities diminished, Iran has to choose whether to retaliate–almost guaranteeing direct conflict with Israel and potentially the United States–or to remain cautious and concentrate on rebuilding its proxy network for a protracted war of attrition. Tehran’s signals up to this point indicate a strategy of strategic patience, but pressure from within the Axis as well as from domestic hardliners to react is high.
The danger of broader regional conflict is serious and increasing. Israel’s battle against Hezbollah has already attracted Iran, which retaliated against Nasrallah’s assassination with barrages of ballistic missiles and veiled threats of further action. The situation remains explosive: a misjudgment or one exceptionally lethal exchange can instantly escalate into a wider war, including Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and potentially the Gulf states.
As CSIS analysts see it, “The region is now balancing on the edge of complete war. More overt attacks between Iran and Israel will likely send it over the edge.” Both consider the costs: Israel has shown it is willing to deepen the conflict and has enhanced its intelligence capabilities, while Iran and Hezbollah have to weigh their networks’ survival and the possible loss of what little deterrent capability they have left.
Within Lebanon, Nasrallah’s passing has entrenched already present fissures and introduced new avenues. Lebanon is already torn apart by economic meltdown, political stagnation, and intensifying sectarian tensions. Now, with Hezbollah weakened, there is a danger of increased instability and a chance for the Lebanese state to regain its sovereignty. Some are rejoicing in the end of what they perceive as a militia that hijacked their nation, while others grieve the loss of a leader who represented resistance against Israel. As Nour Dabboussi contends, “Now is the time for this Lebanese government to reclaim its control over the country, ensuring that the security of its civilians is safeguarded and its complete jurisdiction over its internationally recognized borders is upheld.” Whether Lebanon’s disunited political class can take advantage of this opportunity remains to be determined.
The international community has its own challenge. Demands for a ceasefire and diplomacy are becoming increasingly vocal, particularly from the United States, France, and the United Kingdom. There is an impression that the existing equation of forces, although in Israel’s favor, is not sustainable and could lead the region to a catastrophe. As Michel Duclos has it, “It’s time now for Washington and its allies to demand from Israel a unilateral cessation of hostilities in Lebanon as a first step towards the implementation of a ceasefire.” But as recent experience indicates, military triumphs seldom turn into real peace without a genuine political vision for the future.
At the bottom of the instability in the region lies the still unresolved Palestinian question. The Gaza and Lebanon wars are not random occurrences; they are symptoms of a deeper sickness. The absence of a Palestinian state and the persistence of occupation continue to generate resentment, radicalization, and cycles of violence. As Arwa Damon cautions, “Israel and its allies need to understand that the continuous injustices against the Palestinian people and the absence of a Palestinian state to enable Palestinians to live a life of dignity is, and has been for decades, the primary cause of instability in the region.” Until these issues are addressed, the region will continue to witness new forms of resistance while witnessing the demise of old leaders and organizations.
The assassination of Nasrallah is a turning point, but it is merely the start of something. The Middle East has witnessed countless such moments of change, only for new players and new conflicts to issue from the ruins. Whether this phase brings a broader war, a diplomatic opening, or merely a break before the next bout of violence depends on the decisions to be made in the weeks ahead–by Israel’s leaders, Iran’s leaders, Lebanon’s leaders, and others.