The Middle East was propelled to among its most volatile pages in recent weeks when Israel launched extensive assaults on Iran’s nuclear program, an initiative which was termed by Israeli authorities as a mission of necessity to disable what they describe as an existential threat. Among the plants that were targeted were the Natanz enrichment facility and the Arak heavy water facility, both of which were indirectly and directly damaged.
Foreign inspectors later presented evidence that although there was chemical and radiological contamination of the facilities, there had been no environmental release. The danger remains huge nonetheless—particularly if the operational reactor Bushehr were one day targeted, considering what is contained within.
From a military point of view, the campaign has been of biblical proportions. Israel fired over 450 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones, all while taking out a record flood of Iranian retaliatory missiles in the process. Tel Aviv authorities boast a higher than 95% rate of missile defense against missiles launched at Israeli cities through a multi-layered defense system that consists of air, sea, and land defenses. The raid demonstrated Israel’s technological capability and unveiled the enormity of modern war in the region.
Iran, badly hurt though less than Israel, struck back with a barrage of their own. Sejjil-3 ballistic missiles, they were, targeting strategic points in Haifa. Having suffered a heavy pounding to its command centers and air defense infrastructure, Tehran was also determined and willing to take a pounding in trying to maintain pressure. Blowing up the dome of the Arak reactor, as the satellite photos illustrate, illustrates flaws of hardened nuclear facilities when precision is aimed against them. Diplomacy, though, is a war zone as well while battles rage on.
There has been a change on behalf of former U.S. President Donald Trump to remake his vow to be a dealmaker nearer to the truth of emerging violence’s nasty bite. First, he declared Washington did not have a vested interest in what Israel was doing, while, however, sympathizing with the cause of Israel and warning Iran to be attacked if it would not sit down to negotiate.
His method, say his critics, appears to bludgeon Iran onto the negotiating table with an iron fist. Washington is hotly divided over it. Congressional hard-liners openly approved Israel’s airstrikes, with isolationist elements urging caution. Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified that the U.S. hadn’t initiated and wasn’t conducting the operation, but with so much American military power in the region, staying out of it could end up being a problem if the war escalates.
Politicians moved fast to keep diplomacy afloat within Europe. Diplomatic eleventh-hour crisis negotiations in Geneva between Iran’s foreign minister and European ministers concluded with ultimatums for the use of the “snapback” provision of the 2015 nuclear agreement, reimposing sanctions unless Tehran returns to honoring its obligations. The European ministers called for Tehran to revive cooperation with monitors and negotiators soon, despite lost trust after years of stalemate talks and Iran’s recent rejection of international monitors.
France’s foreign minister openly announced that sanctions were on the horizon if Iran continued to defy them. The standoff is grim. Tehran has remained committed to not abandoning its enrichment program and missile program, insisting on maintaining the assurance that its nuclear push is peaceful in intention. But to the degree of 60% enrichment—a technical step toward weapons-grade—in advance inoculates Western capitals against being reassured in significant terms. The clouds of war have also hung a veil over just how much enriched uranium Iran has on the shelf today, increasing the stakes and stakes in future negotiations.
On the battlefield, Israel’s war is already remolding the Middle East. Hezbollah, Hamas, and other Iranian-backed militias have been severely beaten up, but the airstrikes have also enforced mass evacuations, record civilian casualties, and darkening blackouts within Iran. Regime instability is being used openly already a threat argument, and Moscow is issuing a warning that any move to oust Tehran would unleash forces beyond anyone’s control.
And casting its shadow over everything is the ghastly possibility of a radiological crisis in the event of a break-in at another nuclear plant. The war now becomes a test of nerve, technology, and diplomacy simultaneously. Israel has shown that it can go very deep inside Iran, and Iran has shown that under extreme pressure, it can strike back.
Global powers are racing against time to avoid a broader war, but suspicion and red lines of deepest color make compromise a chimera. The dance of diplomacy and missiles is re-fashioning not only the Middle East, but the world order of security. With room for manoeuvre here so constricted, the next steps—taken either in war rooms or salons of negotiation—will be of implications far more sweeping than the region.