Few dangers cast such a shadow in the minds of strategists as nuclear weapons. Ever since the Cold War, the doctrine of mutually assured destruction—MAD—has restrained great powers, and the logic is still frighteningly simple: in case one side attacks, the other retaliates, and no one really prevails. This doctrine has not only influenced the scale of arsenals but also the strategies and technology created to ensure a second-strike capability, so that any attack will be met with a response.
The United States and Russia are the world’s greatest nuclear hoarders. The United States keeps its Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines on station at sea, quiet and nearly invisible, each of them carrying dozens of missiles that can strike multiple targets with a single shot. The ships are de facto policies of insurance, poised to strike back on short notice. Meanwhile, technological developments in missiles, such as hypersonic missiles with unprecedented velocities, have compressed timelines and complicated early warning and reaction.
Strategies for targeting have become more sophisticated, but the basic aim remains the same: disable the enemy’s ability to counterattack. The prime targets are often military facilities and missile silos far away from population centers, such as Montana, North Dakota, and Nebraska.
To demolish even a few of these facilities might release the power equivalent of tens of thousands of tons of TNT. Simulations and historical observation demonstrate that a small conflict can promptly get out of hand, with millions dead within a few hours and billions threatened with global food famine during the ensuing nuclear winter.
The short-term effects of a nuclear explosion are abysmal, but it is the fallout that makes the event long-lasting. Radioactive material will spread hundreds of miles, contaminating land, water, and infrastructure. While some coastal towns could potentially receive less radiation in the short term, nothing is safe whatsoever.
The parameters for survival will boil down to three things: time, distance, and shielding. Driveaway evacuation is typically futile, since radiation penetrates so easily, and an electromagnetic pulse from the blast would knock out communications and traffic control. Taking shelter indoors, preferably in a basement or the middle of a large building, for a minimum of 24 hours significantly cuts exposure. Stockpiling items like water, food, and a hand-crank radio is foresight and not paranoia.
Personal protective equipment can also be employed. Suits, breathing masks, and potassium iodide tablets protect from radioactive particles and iodine-131 that can become trapped in the thyroid gland. Washing off contaminated clothes and bathing exposed skin can remove much of the radioactivity, which requires simple precautions for the initial couple of hours of exposure.
There are dangers inherent in nuclear technology apart from warfare. Civil nuclear energy carries its own risks, but relatively speaking in context, the safety record is impeccable. From tens of thousands of reactor-years of global experience, only two of the large-scale accidents, Chernobyl and Fukushima, created meaningful exposure to radiation.
Chernobyl, with design error and operator error, killed a few dozen directly at the time, and long-term effects such as thyroid cancer were relatively minor in scale. Fukushima, resulting from a natural disaster, experienced no direct radiation fatalities, but stress from evacuation resulted in thousands of fatalities. Lessons learned for safety from the accidents have brought on post-accident innovations such as multiple layers of containment, stringent stress testing, and global regulation.
Nuclear power is now the safest source of energy per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated, comparable to wind or sunlight and infinitely safer than fossil fuels. The actual risk is not so much in the technology as in human mistakes, bureaucratic slips, and the deliberate employment of weapons in conflict.
To military planners and civilian policy makers, the picture is grim. Nuclear war is still a viable threat, and even a limited conflict would have horrific consequences. Meanwhile, civilian nuclear power proves that, with proper construction, inspection, and cooperation between states, risks can be mastered safely. The challenge is recalling the lessons of the past, staying vigilant, and making sure that systems designed to save us are never activated under pressure.
