When Russian drones flew through Polish airspace in a cross-border aerial attack over Ukraine, security in Europe was threatened. This was not a border confrontation—it was the most daring intrusion into NATO airspace since the beginning of hostilities against Ukraine and the first time on record that forces from NATO have returned fire with gunfire at Russian military hardware in a straight exchange. As NATO head Mark Rutte described, “whether that was intentional or not, it’s irresponsible. It’s risky.”
Poland substituted F-16s with Black Hawk helicopters, and Dutch F-35s and German Patriots entered the battle. Warsaw and Rzeszów airports were briefly shut down as officials pursued the wreckage of a drone crash littering hundreds of square miles. Prime Minister Donald Tusk was frank in reporting to parliament that Poland had been threatening to go to full-scale war for as long a period as it had ever been near a disaster of that sort since the Second World War. He invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty, under which emergency consultation between the 32 allies must occur.
Russia itself claimed no intention of attacking Polish facilities, attributing short-range and pilot error to the drones. Russia’s ally, Belarus, had issued the theory of the accidental flyover, attributing it to jamming technology. Most of the European politicians, and even Polish ministers, regarded the incident as one of deliberate provocation. Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister Radosław Sikorski reacted by saying that the scale involved—nineteen intrusions on a single evening—rendered an accident out of the question.
The Polish psychological shock was immediate and earth-shaking. War, which had been “next door” in Ukraine, now hung menacingly over the driveway. But the Polish reaction was characterized by discipline and solidarity. Adversarial political enemies, President Karol Nawrocki and Prime Minister Tusk, clasped hands in coordination. The traditionally polarized Polish political leadership closed ranks, sending a bold message to Moscow: Poland and NATO would not be separated.
Each alliance’s Atlantic strategists presumed that they were observing the drone swarm as a Kremlin test of NATO capabilities. It is not a gaffe, argued Ian Brzezinski, “Nineteen drones—and perhaps it was greater—is not a gaffe. It is a calculated barrage intended to infuriate Poland and demonstrate the power of the NATO coalition.” The risk, in Atlantic Council’s Torrey Taussig’s view, is as great as Vladimir Putin believes he can get away with in Ukraine; the threat of a wider war between NATO and Russia is overwhelmingly probable.
This wasn’t the initial instance when a Russian drone had intruded into Polish airspace. Before this, there had also been similar intrusions in the past, one of which in the past had resulted in two farmers from Poland being gunned down in 2022, which had put the nation on high alert. But its frequency and sophistication were unmatched. NATO allies Romania and Croatia have also seen drone crashes and intrusions into airspace since 2022. These have spurred Romania to implement a law that gives military forces the green light to take down wayward drones.
The NATO response was multinational and rapid, invoking the air defenses of many countries. The message that the alliance was sending was clear: it would protect all of its member countries. The attack also did some way to further emphasize, though, the necessity for even better deterrence. The calls were for more sanctions on Russia, a more robust military presence at the NATO border, and closer cooperation with Ukraine in electronic warfare and anti-drone defense.
Poland’s own modernization of the military was most significant in and of itself. Investing $55 billion in the military in 2025—4.8 percent of GDP, a record for an all-NATO country—Poland is rapidly modernizing its military. It will have more tanks in 2030 on the battlefield than Germany, France, Britain, and Italy combined. Such investment, combined with loans from the European Commission and cooperation with other countries, makes Poland a bulwark of eastern NATO defense.
The larger context is ominous. Russia’s proxy attack on the West has escalated from sabotage and subversion to direct armed attacks. The Center for Strategic and International Studies reports, “the number of Russian attacks in Europe nearly tripled in 2024, after increasing more than fourfold between 2022 and 2023.” Targets are transportation infrastructure and defense industries, all within the context of Western aid to Ukraine.
While at last the dust is finally settling in Poland, Warsaw, and its partners have something to say: the game of gradual response is over. Hard power—military, economic, and informational—is required to instruct Moscow that Western resolve can’t be battered. European security hangs by thread in the way NATO responds at this point.