How does an air-superiority-less nation attack the heart of an enemy’s war economy? Ukraine’s solution has been a constant, technically advanced drone campaign that has already knocked out nearly a fifth of Russia’s oil refining capacity. That is not symbolic warfare—it is precision engineering on strategic targets that is remaking the battlefield beyond the front lines.
Scale and Strategy of the DeepStrike Campaign
Since early August, Ukraine has carried out seventy such strikes against Russian fuel, lubricant, explosive, and military-industrial targets. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi attributed the DeepStrike program with having instigated a fuel crisis that “directly impacts logistics and the supply of its army.” The campaign’s operational logic is straightforward: disable refineries, terminals, and transport hubs to impair Russia’s ability to finance and sustain its military operations. By September, market analysts estimated that Ukrainian drones had knocked 38–40% of Russian refining capacity out of commission, compelling Moscow to ship more crude oil instead of refined products.
Engineering the Long-Range Drone Offensive
Ukraine’s unmanned strike platforms—like the UJ-26 Bobr, An-126 Lyutiy, FP-1, and Peklo—are designed for ranges of up to 2,000 kilometers. Most have less than 200 kilograms of explosives, but mission planning focuses on refinery cracking towers, which are hard to fix and need sanctioned components. Strike packages tend to be 10–20 planes per target, with additional drones serving as decoys to overwhelm Russian air defense. The August 2 offensive, Russia’s largest known drone battle, reported 332 incoming aircraft in one night.
Kirishi Refinery: A Case Study in Disruption
On Oct. 4, Ukrainian drones struck the Kirishi refinery in Leningrad Oblast, over 800 kilometers from the frontier. The strike put the CDU-6 unit, which has the capacity to process 160,000 barrels per day—roughly 40% of the plant’s capacity—out of commission. The repair will take a month, and production will limp at 70% capacity by overloading other units. Kirishi represents 6.6% of Russia’s overall refining volume and has been hit several times since March 2024, highlighting Ukraine’s capability to re-hit key nodes ahead of full recovery.
Feodosia Terminal and Crimea’s Fuel Crisis
On Oct. 6, the Feodosia oil transshipment terminal in occupied Crimea was hit by Ukraine’s 14th Separate UAV Regiment. With the capacity to hold 250,000 tons of fuel, the terminal is critical to Russian military logistics. The blowout set fire to a visible fire for dozens of kilometers, extending to northern oil depots. By the end of September, up to 50% of the gas stations in Crimea had suspended gasoline sales, rationing down to 20 liters per client. Disruptions of this nature in occupied areas increase both civilian and military pressure on Moscow.
AI-Based Targeting and Autonomous Systems
Ukrainian troops are incorporating AI into drone operations, allowing autonomous terminal approach and precision strikes even amidst electronic warfare. According to Deputy Defense Minister Yuriy Myronenko, AI analyzes more than 50,000 frontline video streams per month, mapping targets for quick engagement. Developing systems will enable drones to target and destroy objectives with little or no human intervention, potentially expanding to thousands of autonomous interceptors by 2026. This technological advantage minimizes exposure to jamming and maximizes strike effectiveness against mobile or high-value targets.
Targets on Rail Logistics and Oil Transport
In addition to fixed installations, Ukraine has also conducted deep strikes into Russian fuel and military supplies that move on trains. Russia’s military supply chain and economy both depend on railways, but fixed courses leave them exposed. Next-generation drones such as the Liutyi employ GPS to navigate and AI-directed targeting to target moving trains, derailing vehicles, and setting cargo ablaze. Rail hubs themselves—Volgograd and Surovikino among them—have been attacked, disrupting key nodes that increase refinery losses by clogging distribution networks.
Domestic Development of Air Defense Systems
Ukraine is at the same time developing unmanned air defense systems through the likes of Brave1, supporting dozens of local missile and interceptor programs. Surface-to-air missiles are in development for low-cost, all-weather drone interception, like the Shahed. Interoperability with NATO equipment is taken into account, but proprietary solutions are given priority for expense and quick deployment. President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced a target of creating 1,000 interceptor drones per day, highlighting the industrial mobilization behind Ukraine’s defensive and offensive drone efforts.
Cyber Forces Command and Integrated Warfare
On Oct. 9, Ukraine’s parliament supported the establishment of a Cyber Forces command to protect and operate in cyberspace. The new organization will manage reserves, train staff, and synchronize capacities in line with NATO requirements. Cyberwarfare augments conventional attacks by attacking infrastructure control systems, which may amplify the effect of drone attacks on energy and logistics systems.
Economic and Political Impact on Russia
Fuel shortages have cascaded through Russia’s regions, with retail prices increasing by 20–30% and up to 40% spikes in rural areas. The Kremlin has banned exports of diesel and restricted gasoline exports, and allowed imports from China, Belarus, and others. Independent fuel stations, accounting for 60% of Russia’s network, threaten to be brought down by wholesale prices above capped retail prices. Even pro-Kremlin outlets have admitted “unscheduled refinery shutdowns” as a cause of the crisis.
Ukraine’s DeepStrike campaign showcases how focused engineering, AI integration, and synchronized attacks on energy infrastructure can erode an opponent’s military-industrial complex without traditional air superiority. With every refinery blaze and train sabotaging fuel delivery, the strategic math changes—compelling Moscow to divert resources off the battlefield to fix its economic veins.