Nuclear war is one of those subjects that can seem almost too monumental to fully understand, but it’s once again on our world’s radar. In response to increasing fears, the United Nations has embarked on a new, ambitious initiative, assembling a group of 21 scientific experts who will take a profound, evidence-based examination of what nuclear war would imply for our health, our societies, and our planet. It’s the first time in over 30 years that a study of this scope is being conducted, and it couldn’t be more timely.
The initial effects of a nuclear blast are unimaginably destructive—millions of lives would be lost in a matter of seconds from the overwhelming heat and shockwave. But that’s not all the damage. As analyst Max Roser has noted, the wider effects of a nuclear conflict would be beyond imagination and devastating. There is so much more we can—and should—do to reduce the chance that we ever get to that point. The blast would be followed by radioactive fallout spreading many miles beyond the target zone, poisoning the air we inhale, the water we drink, and the land on which we grow our food. Those long-term health consequences—radiation sickness, cancer, and environmental devastation—would persist for decades.
And then there is the chilling specter of nuclear winter. If cities become firestorms, huge quantities of smoke and soot might enter the upper atmosphere and screen sunlight for years. That reduction in sunlight would cause global temperatures to plummet, inducing a deep and long-lasting chill. Such a climate change would devastate agriculture across the globe, resulting in what scientists refer to as “nuclear famine.” Billions of individuals would starve as crops fail in the world’s most fertile agricultural areas. And it wouldn’t matter where the bombs fell—the whole planet would be devastated. That is why nuclear war is not only a geopolitical problem, but a global health crisis.
Against the backdrop of these colossal dangers, the United Nations General Assembly has created a new Independent Scientific Panel on the Consequences of Nuclear War. As outlined by the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs, the panel will investigate the effects of nuclear war at all levels—local communitiesright through to the entire globe. This covers the environmental impacts, the public health consequences, the societal and food system disruptions, and how ecosystems could be harmed in the short and long term. To do all of this, the panel is tapping a broad spectrum of experts—ranging from atmospheric scientists to physicians, economists, and behavioral researchers—to ensure that nothing is left out.
The necessity for this study is more pressing than ever. As Zia Mian, co-director of the Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton University, explains, today’s world is vastly different from what it was in the 1980s. Our global population is 50 percent larger, and our lives are more deeply connected through trade, communication, and shared environmental systems. Scientific modeling tools for complex systems have come a long way, but so have the risks, since nuclear weapons are being upgraded and major arms control agreements have unraveled.
This new UN panel isn’t merely about data-gathering—it’s about assisting the world to finally grasp what we, as a world, are fighting for. Since the co-chair of the Scientific Advisory Group to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons noted, this study is particularly significant for nations that have not conducted their nuclear war studies but would nonetheless be affected by it. A rigorous, unbiased scientific review can provide policymakers and the public with the information they need to make good decisions—and to resist governments that attempt to downplay the dangers or to base their policy on outmoded thinking about deterrence.
Confronted with something so frightening, it’s tempting to feel powerless. But history teaches us that change is possible. Since the Cold War, nuclear stockpiles have been significantly reduced, and global treaties have made a real difference. That said, around ten thousand nuclear weapons still exist today, and the possibility of their use—whether by accident or intent—is still very real. So it’s more important than ever to focus on reducing these risks through diplomacy, international oversight, and informed public engagement.
Learning the real health and social effects of nuclear war isn’t an academic exercise—it’s about protecting our families, our communities, and our future. By applying scientific fact to this question, the new UN panel is ensuring decisions regarding nuclear weapons are made with open eyes, informed minds, and a sense of responsibility based on both knowledge and compassion.