Turbulence has always been inherent in air travel, something that most fliers tolerate as a common annoyance. But more recently, it has shifted from being a mere bumpy nuisance to a credible point of conversation in aviation. Tales of fliers being slammed against cabin ceilings, unexpected injuries, and even occasional fatalities have made it more difficult to dismiss turbulence as a minor annoyance.
So what is turbulence, exactly? At its most basic, it’s air moving in a chaotic fashion that interferes with the smooth passage around an airplane. You’ve heard people liken it to driving and hitting potholes, except in the air. Turbulence can occur due to any number of reasons—changes in air pressure, storms, jet streams, or air flowing over mountains. Occasionally, you can spot it approaching, such as towering thunderheads on the horizon. But the most disquieting type is invisible: those swift jolts that materialize in otherwise apparent blue skies with little or no warning.
Pilots can generally ride out turbulence from storms, as radar and visual indicators provide them with time to change course. Clear-air turbulence is different. This variety tends to hide near jet streams and can’t be detected by radar. Pilots might receive word from other planes down the route, but not always. When it strikes, it has a tendency to come out of nowhere, leaving both passengers and crew surprised.
The jet stream is a major contributor to it. Way up in the sky, it’s similar to a river of air rushing along the atmosphere. Near where wind speeds change abruptly at their boundaries, turbulence tends to be more common. Researchers who have examined these patterns have determined that the stronger the temperature gradients across the jet stream, the greater the turbulence. That change is being attributed to more general climate shifts in the air, which are producing more unstable air conditions for planes to fly through.
The statistics are unequivocal: turbulence is becoming more common and more intense. One long-term study revealed that, across many decades, moderate clear-air turbulence rose by over a third, while the most intense type rose by over half. And forecasts indicate the issue is only set to increase in the years ahead, particularly on congested air routes over the Atlantic and Pacific.
Nevertheless, turbulence does not mean that planes are at risk of crashing from the sky. Modern planes are constructed so that they can withstand much more stress than turbulence puts on them. Their wings will curl severely and not break, and the whole aircraft is strength-tested for the worst conditions. Pilots point out that though turbulence can be frightening, it hardly ever jeopardizes the plane’s safety as a whole. The larger threat is within the cabin.
Most turbulence-related injuries happen to flight attendants, since they’re often walking the aisles when it strikes. Passengers can also be hurt if they’re not wearing seatbelts. Official reports show dozens of serious injuries every year in the United States alone, and while deaths are extremely rare, they do occasionally occur. One high-profile incident involved a passenger fatally injured when a plane hit unexpected turbulence mid-flight.
For airlines, turbulence also has a financial price. Additional fuel is consumed for a detour around bumpy air, post-violent encounter inspections are needed, and medical expenses or damages for hurt passengers can soon escalate. Estimates place the cost in the range of hundreds of millions of dollars per year, and since turbulence is projected to grow, so will its costs.
The good news is that technology is evolving to assist pilots and airlines in coping with turbulence more effectively. Enhanced radar, information exchange among aircraft, and even artificial intelligence are being utilized to predict turbulence more accurately. Airlines are also revising procedures: crews are occasionally asked to sit down earlier, and in-flight service might be modified when conditions are likely to deteriorate.
For travelers, the best defense is simple—wear your seatbelt whenever you’re seated, even if the sign is off. Flight crews repeat this advice for good reason, as many injuries happen to those who ignore it. Some flight attendants also suggest sitting closer to the front of the plane, where bumps tend to feel less intense.
Turbulence might be more prevalent than it used to be, but flying is still one of the safest modes of transportation on the globe. The planes are designed to accommodate it, pilots are schooled to deal with it, and the chances of major injury are infinitesimally small. The jolts might be unpleasant, but they don’t have to derail anyone’s travel itinerary. With a bit of forethought and prudence, turbulence is merely another aspect of the flight—irksome sometimes, but by no means a cause to abandon flight.
