The Caribbean is warming up, and it has nothing to do with the heat—Venezuela is at the center of a high-stakes game of chicken with the United States, and the tension is tangible. President Donald Trump deployed eight warships and a nuclear-powered submarine to the southern Caribbean last month, ostensibly to fight drug trafficking, but the gesture is increasingly viewed as an open challenge to Nicolás Maduro’s hold on power. U.S. forces have destroyed at least three suspected drug ships in recent weeks, killing 14 individuals in operations that U.N. experts have described as “extrajudicial execution”, CBS News reports.
The Trump administration describes the ships as being part of a network overflowing America with drugs, but even American officials acknowledge that Venezuela is a small player in the cocaine market relative to Colombia and Ecuador.
Maduro is not going down without a fight. He’s issued a state of external emergency, granting himself broad authority over defense and national security. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has said the decree is prepared to be signed and can be done so at any time by Maduro. Under emergency status, the government can provisionally suspend some constitutional guarantees for up to 90 days, with the option to extend. The action is meant to “flex national muscle” and mobilize the nation against what Maduro refers to as U.S. “aggression.” Tanks have rolled onto streets, fighter planes have flown over U.S. naval vessels, and the Bolivarian militia—Venezuela’s armed civilian reserve force—has mounted dramatic protests in Caracas, rifle in hand, pledging to defend the country.
Inside Venezuela, the atmosphere is one of fear, hope, and fatigue. Some government backers are willing to take up arms, but others—businesspeople, diplomats, and regular citizens—are concerned with the anarchy that might ensue after an American strike. There is doubt whether America would remain to shore up a new government, and genuine concern that toppling Maduro would unleash a free-for-all of power seeking between armed groups, military factions, and paramilitaries. In the words of one businessman, eliminating Maduro would make Venezuela Haiti, where there has been a history of upheaval following assassinations.
The world is paying close attention. Canada, for instance, has denounced the Maduro government for human rights abuses and crimes against humanity, particularly following the controversial 2024 presidential election. Global Affairs Canada has said that the government has criminalized opposition, attacked journalists, and exercised control by repression. The U.N. Fact-Finding Mission has chronicled systematic abuses, while the International Criminal Court is exploring the possibility of crimes against humanity having occurred.
Sanctions form another front in this war. The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has directed a network of restrictions against Venezuela’s government and oil company, PdVSA. The measures freeze assets, limit financial transactions, and deny business with sanctioned individuals and entities. There are humanitarian exceptions—food, medicine, and personal remittances—but the overall impact has been to strangle Venezuela’s economy and restrict its access to foreign markets. Under OFAC regulations, U.S. persons are generally not allowed to engage in transactions involving the Government of Venezuela unless specially authorized.
Geopolitically, Venezuela is not alone. Russia, China, and Iran all have backed Maduro, enabling him to ride out sanctions and diplomatic pressure. Russian military advisers and air defenses are in the country, and China’s Belt and Road Initiative has provided investment and infrastructure. These alignments make any U.S. plans for regime change complicated and increase the stakes for regional stability.
On the streets of Caracas, life continues—of sorts. Some are preparing for war by enrolling in militias or attending government rallies. Others are simply trying to survive, more concerned about their next meal or their child’s birthday party than a potential invasion. The economy has crept back a little from its worst to middling, but poverty and uncertainty are still rampant. As one social worker confided to The New York Times, hoarding food is out for most Venezuelans—they just can’t afford it.
The bottom line? Venezuela waits with bated breath to see what comes next. Whether it’s an American attack, a negotiated changeover, or more of the same, the nation is between defiance and desperation, the world watching its every step.