Sanctions have been nothing but another headache. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has faced tighter controls on electronics, capital, and critical components, and that has made it difficult to move forward with high-end projects. The supply chain is creaking, timelines have slipped behind, and now there are questions about whether the Su-75 will move beyond the model stage. Even if someone walked in today with cash, getting it to a genuine production line would be a battle.
On paper, the Checkmate is impressive. It’s based on a single engine, is stealth-capable, and has speeds of nearly Mach 1.8. With a range of about 3,000 kilometers and a 7-ton payload, there is plenty of reach and punch.
The design is focused on modular systems, integration with AI, and interchangeability with a wide range of guided weapons. The estimated cost of $30–40 million per plane would be substantially less than that of the F-35, at least if those numbers are real beyond the brochure level.
The problem is that the jet has not moved past mockups and display models. Since its flashy reveal at the 2021 MAKS air show, Sukhoi and United Aircraft Corporation have taken the prototype on a world tour, but progress has been glacial. Official reports still indicate that production is imminent, but service entry is closer than ever before years ago.
Another hurdle is the absence of genuine buyers. Russia’s sales pitch was targeted at the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa—countries that are interested in stealth but do not possess Western fighters. The UAE, Nigeria, Algeria, and India are mentioned as potential customers, but no orders have been signed yet.
Gimmicky stunts on airshow floors, like sponsored perfume bottles, have generated headlines but not orders. As one commentator has written, numerous nations will “kick the tires” but relatively few that, in fact, write the check.
Russia’s fight with Ukraine added only more obstacles. Defense spending is put into drones, missiles, and artillery that directly impact the battlefield now, and expensive fighter programs get further down on the list. Designing and producing a new stealth fighter is expensive, and in the middle of a continuing war, every ruble goes elsewhere.
And then, naturally, there’s the question of whether manned fighter jets are even in the cards. Ukrainian air-to-air combat has been shaped far more by long-range missiles and low-cost drones than it has by traditional dogfighting.
That shift is making countries hold back before spending billions on manned planes that could be vulnerable to swarms of low-cost drones. For Checkmate, that means facing an even steeper hill to sell a market.
Russia has offered partnerships as the basis for cost sharing. There have been co-productions with the UAE, technology transfer commitments to India, and even plans for an unmanned spin-off in the future. But India’s own experience with the Su-57 project left it cautious, and its domestically led initiatives take priority. More recently, there have been suggestions that Russia might include Belarus, but the country’s lack of space experience and pressures under sanctions make that little more than a pipe dream.
In the end, the Su-75 is a reminder of just how wide the gap between hope and reality can be for modern defense projects. The concept is sexy, the cost appears attractive, and the sales pamphlets promise it all. Sanctions, budget constraints, and shifting priorities have kept it on the ground, however. For now, the Checkmate is a case study in the challenge of peddling new warplanes as opposed to a real next-generation fighter.
