Since January 2024, the war between Russia and Ukraine has changed in an unprecedented way. Combat on the front line is not the only thing that has been changed—Ukrainian drones and missiles are being launched deep into Russian territory regularly, striking important infrastructure. Oil fields, fuel depots, and supply chains—the very lifeblood of war—have been high-priority targets. This transformed the war and made it something that reaches far beyond the front lines, with consequences that cross borders and economies.
Ukrainian strategy has made a lightning-quick shift. Initially, there were few strikes against military targets close to the front line, partly because weapons supplied by the West had some limitations. But as war wore on and Russian oil revenue kept pouring in, Kyiv increasingly turned to indigenous drones and missiles. No longer constrained by the limitations of overseas, these indigenous systems enabled Ukraine to attack targets thousands of kilometers away, striking at Russian energy infrastructure directly instead of merely trying to strangulate it economically.
The scope of these attacks is immense. In the early months of 2025 alone, Ukrainian drones attacked a minimum of 81 Russian oil installations. Through early 2025, about 10 percent of Russia’s refining capacity had been temporarily shut down. They targeted refineries and storage tanks, pumping stations and ports, and even as far inland as Moscow, Engels air base, and Izhevsk—over 1,300 kilometers away.
The effect has been significant, both operationally and financially. Between September 2024 and February 2025, Ukrainian attacks caused at least 60 billion rubles’ worth of destruction—equivalent to $714 million—and destroyed dozens of tanks along the way. Perhaps the most high-profile attack in Feodosia, Crimea, destroyed 11 tanks with a combined area of 69,000 cubic meters, resulting in an estimated cost of $39 million.
Russian refineries were also forced to cut production, reducing gasoline and diesel output and increasing fuel prices. Refining capacity dropped temporarily by over 12 percent, a drop not seen in 12 years. The government acted by putting production reports on hold and prohibiting the export of fuel to placate local markets.
But the net economic effect on Russia is negligible. Domestic demand is supplemented more than two times over by the refining capacity of the nation, so with 10–15 percent briefly shut down, home needs are filled with ease, with Belarus as backup material when the need arises.
The oil operators carry most of the financial cost, that is, repair costs and lost revenues. The state budget is partially cushioned, with refined product exports impacted but crude oil sales compensating for the loss in part, although at reduced margins.
Operationally, the raids compel Russia to stretch out its defenses. Defending a very dispersed complex of critical infrastructure means diverting assets and overwhelming air defense cover. While some locations have been equipped with Pantsir systems and anti-drone gear, there are vacancies left. With dozens of operating refineries and hundreds more planned, there is no way to protect each target fully simultaneously.
Technologically, the campaign has been revolutionary. Inexpensive navigation technology, satellite-linked controllers, and the availability of high-resolution imagery enable Ukraine to strike with unparalleled accuracy at a great distance. Low-cost, small drones can blast multi-million-dollar infrastructure, and the psychological effect of strikes hitting Russian land is as definitive as the physical destruction.
These two forces continue to realign strategy. Russia ramped up its own attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities, including refineries and power stations. Economic and military targets have merged and stoked violence. Concurrently, Ukraine’s own indigenous manufacture of missiles and drones, financed by Western assistance and technology, has become central to its defense as doubts are raised about future aid.
The international setting is also pertinent. The U.S. has at times pushed Ukraine to minimize attacks on Russian energy targets so as not to impact global markets or increase tensions. Cease-fire initiatives and short-term moratoriums have been proposed, but Kyiv continues to seek attacks as one of the very few ways of inflicting real damage to the Kremlin.
Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructures reflect the nature of contemporary warfare. It shows how technological innovation, asymmetrical strategies, and economic strength can reform strategy. Short-term deterrence alone cannot win, but the conflict now extends to Russia’s industrial heartland, enters world energy markets, and passes into policymaking across the globe. Of most interest to analysts and historians is not the short-term destruction but how these strategies are remaking war, deterrence, and resilience in the 21st century.