It seemed like a show-stopping premiere when the Russians first presented the Su-75 “Checkmate”. By presenting it as a budget-friendly alternative to the U.S. F-35, the plane was directed to those countries that are not permitted to purchase the Western stealthy aircraft but are willing to enter the fifth-generation club. Nevertheless, so far at the end of 2025, the Checkmate narrative, apparently, is much more a story of delayed promises rather than a sky revolution.
It’s a lot of things in theory that the airplane does not miss. A single-engine design that can reach up to Mach 1.8, stealth properties presented, 3,000 kilometers of distance, and a 7-ton lift. A technical sheet advertises user-friendly systems, virtual intellect assistance, and cooperation with advanced weapons. The price post, announced at the level of $ 30–40 million, seems to be a great deal compared with the F-35.
Nevertheless, there is no way in the world that the project is more than a prototype when you look beyond the glamor brochures and airshow highlights. From the 2021 MAKS air show to now, Sukhoi and United Aircraft Corporation have been presenting the theoretical concepts and models of the aircraft, while the exact dates for the beginning of production keep being pushed back. They keep going to the air shows to talk about “serial production very soon,” but there are still no operational aircraft.
The element that is holding it back is firm customers. The Kremlin had in mind markets in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia, that is where the need for affordable stealth fighters was expected to be high. The regions of the UAE, Algeria, Nigeria, and India have been mentioned in the conference, but none of them has signed a contract.
Not even imaginative marketing tactics, such as handing out Checkmate-branded perfumes at exhibitions, seem to ignite the interest of people in making deals. To quote one analyst who said it wittily: “Lots of governors will look and check the car, but very few of them would really buy it.”
The issue of international sanctions only aggravates the problem. Since the conflict in Ukraine, export restrictions and financial pressure have been choking the access to high-tech electronics and supply chains. This fact makes it very hard to envision massive production even if a customer were to show up tomorrow. The increase in production would require the resources that Russia’s defense industry is finding hard to provide.
The war itself has also influenced the change in the allocation of the defense budget. Instead of investing in futuristic fighters, Moscow has chosen drones, missiles, and artillery, that is, equipment that can have an immediate effect on the battlefield. The process of creation, implementation, and support of a stealth jet is definitely more expensive than what Russia is in a position to prioritize at the moment.
The way contemporary air combat is changing is happening at the same time. The use of old-style dogfights has been almost zero in Ukraine; instead, there has been the predominance of long-range missile duels and large numbers of unmanned aircraft.
Expensive manned fighters are increasingly losing to far cheaper drones, which is the reason for the many potential customers who become reluctant to commit to another traditional fighter and drop that much money.
However, Russia has still been in search of partners. In the case of the UAE, the negotiations have mainly involved joint subsystems production, while the talks with India included the tempting offer of shared technology. Still, India has been committed to its own indigenous programs, and its guarded experience with Su-57 has dampened the interest. Belarus has been mentioned recently as a potential partner, but its difficult economy and limited space capacity make the real involvement improbable.
All this is a strong indication that there is an issue between hope and accomplishment. In terms of cost overruns, sanctions, and military priorities, the Su-75 is still being taken from reality time and time again, even though it looks very stylish in the concept and makes a wonderful airshow spectacle. At this moment, the Checkmate is seen not to be the new generation fighters’ forerunner but rather an artist’s depiction of how difficult and expensive it is to take brave designs to actual combat aircraft.