The battle for Avdiivka has been among the strongest examples of what this war is—a battle of logistics and stamina as much as strategy and firepower. After months of grinding combat, Russian commanders launched an enormous effort against the city, seeking to encircle Ukrainian troops and gain the initiative in the east. Their strategy was straightforward but relentless: overwhelming numbers. Ill-skilled and lightly equipped troops were thrown forward in what outside onlookers called “human wave” attacks. To outside observers, Moscow seemed happy to expend thousands of lives for incremental victories on the map.
The human cost was horrid. It was approximated by Ukrainian officials that nearly 47,000 Russian soldiers were lost during the push, nearly 17,000 of whom were killed. But even at the expense of so many, Russia finally captured Avdiivka. The victory came with a cloud, however. Britain’s defense ministry reported that Russia had lost over 400 tanks—its prewar strength—more than the city. Experts noted other front units being redirected just to keep the offensive going, implying how far the Kremlin was prepared to go to achieve a symbolic triumph, no matter the cost.
For Ukraine, keeping Avdiivka was a battle shaped not only by Russian pressure but also by shortages and faulty defenses. Ammunition supplies were low, Western support had tapered off, and defenses for the city were far from complete. Satellite imagery revealed trench lines to the west were shallow and rudimentary compared with the multiple-layered defenses Russia had built in the south, featuring tank barriers and interlocking trenches. Western leaders quietly conceded that Ukraine had not invested sufficiently in fixed defenses early on in the war, a weakness that painfully became clear when Russian troops broke through.
The imbalance in preparation was the most glaring. In locations like Verbove, Russia’s deep defenses suppressed Ukraine’s counterattacks. Alongside Avdiivka, however, Ukrainian positions were left vulnerable. Kyiv later admitted that there were few resources allocated to offensive operations rather than constructing strong defensive positions. These were constructed at a slow and costly rate—and by the time priorities shifted, the window had closed.
The equipment casualties highlighted the war’s ugly arithmetic. The Ukrainian estimates placed Russia’s losses at more than 7,200 tanks and almost 14,000 armored vehicles from the start of the invasion. Ukraine alone lost about 50 combat vehicles in Avdiivka, and Russia lost almost 700. Such a proportion cannot be sustained indefinitely. At the end of the battle, Russian troops were being moved around in lightly armed carriers and improvised vehicles, showing to what extent their inventory was stretched.
Western assistance has been critical to keeping Ukraine in the fight. Ammunition, missile, and air-defense package shipments kept its front lines from buckling, but slowdowns in new packages of aid had a cumulative effect during the fight. Stocks dwindled, air defenses were stretched thin, and officials warned that diplomatic squabbles abroad had consequences far larger than Avdiivka. For others in Kyiv, the capture of the city was less due to dipping morale and more due to running low on important supplies at a critical moment.
Manpower is a mounting issue on both sides. Russia has been relying substantially on conscripts, prisoners, and volunteers from the poorer regions of the nation to make up its numbers. Ukraine’s front-line soldiers are more highly trained and motivated, but the typical soldier is over 40 now, and many have been at the front for hundreds of days with minimal actual rest. The fatigue is evident.
Russian troops also have their morale breaks. Leaked footage has seen troops complaining about suicidal missions, inept command, and a lack of equipment. Moscow’s willingness to take vast losses for incremental gains has fueled irritations, but fear of punishment keeps most soldiers from open rebellion.
Tactically, the capture of Avdiivka opened Russia up to possible lines of further advance, but nobody expects rapid thrusts. Its forces are fatigued and reserves spent. Ukraine is already digging in new defenses to the west of the city, but unless there is a more reliable flow of Western weaponry, other citadels are at risk. Europe is slowly increasing production of ammunition, but the progress has been spasmodic. In the United States, equipment stands ready to be shipped, but politics have kept it back.
In its very nature, the war is now a matter of speed versus stamina. Russia continues to expend an enormous sum in moving inch by inch, whereas Ukraine relies upon foreign assistance and the resolve of its soldiers to hold the front line.
The battle for Avdiivka captures the war in microcosm: dreadful casualties, slight territorial advances, and outcomes as much determined by politics and logistics as by fighting. Technically, on paper, it was a Russian victory. In reality, it may be a hollow one—one that will cost much more than the ground it captured.
